Ajax v AZ Alkmaar prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AjaxDrawAZ Alkmaar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ajax 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ajax are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ajax 50%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 26%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Ajax v AZ AlkmaarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ajax win50%

Draw24%

AZ Alkmaar win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueJohan Cruijff Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ajax

AZ Alkmaar

9Days since last match9

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
4	Ajax	9	+15	18

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Sarri: ‘Atalanta more positive than negative, unexpected defeat to Ajax’Football Italia · 22 Oct 22:33 · Atalanta, Ajax UECL | Ajax 2-0 Atalanta: Dea undone by two late goalsFootball Italia · 22 Oct 21:55 · Ajax, Atalanta

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ajax winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · updated 25 Oct 04:13 · locked at kick-off

50% The market51%

Us50%

~~Market~~51%

We make Ajax a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ajax v AZ Alkmaar~~1.86 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 20~~4 v 2

~~The market · Ajax win~~51% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ajax win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ajax win	50%	51%	−1
Draw	24%	23%	+1
AZ Alkmaar win	26%	27%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	67%	−6
Both teams to score	62%	66%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	85%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Ajax or draw	74%	73%	+1
Ajax clean sheet	27%	–	–
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 4.8 3.6 1 7.1 11.0 6.6 2.9 2 7.3 9.4 6.1 2.7 3 4.5 5.8 3.8 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ajax down, AZ Alkmaar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,684 Eredivisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ajax at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). AZ Alkmaar away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Ajax, 1.30 for AZ Alkmaar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AZA 1–1 AJA · AZA 6–0 AJA · AJA 0–2 AZA · AJA 2–2 AZA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 29 Aug

AJAX

LWWDDW1–3 · 5–1 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 5–2

AZ ALKMAAR

WWDWLD5–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	+5	15
8	Groningen	9	+3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	−3	12
11	Utrecht	10	−10	12
12	Excelsior	9	−2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	Telstar	10	−9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	−10	6
18	Willem II	10	−22	2