Heerenveen W v AZ W prediction · Eredivisie Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Heerenveen WDrawAZ W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Heerenveen W 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heerenveen W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Heerenveen W 43%, draw 20%, AZ W 38%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Heerenveen W v AZ WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Heerenveen W win43%

Draw20%

AZ W win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 8

VenueSportpark Skoatterwald

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heerenveen W

AZ W

21Days since last match21

Last match: 4 Oct · Eredivisie Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	AZ W	7	−7	12
6	Heerenveen W	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heerenveen w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Heerenveen W a 43% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heerenveen W v AZ W~~1.99 – 1.84

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie Women this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heerenveen W win	43%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
AZ W win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Heerenveen W or draw	62%	–	–
Heerenveen W clean sheet	17%	–	–
AZ W clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.5%

0123450 4.9 3.9 2.4 1 5.1 7.5 7.2 4.4 2.1 2 4.3 7.5 6.7 4.1 3 2.8 4.9 4.4 2.7 4 2.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Heerenveen W down, AZ W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 651 Eredivisie Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.0% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heerenveen W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). AZ W away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Heerenveen W, 1.84 for AZ W. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AZW 1–5 HEE · HEE 3–2 AZW · HEE 2–3 AZW · AZW 1–0 HEE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie Women this season · since 22 Aug

HEERENVEEN W

LLWDWD0–1 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2

AZ W

WWWLLL2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–5 · 0–5 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Twente W	7	+26	21
2	Ajax W	8	+11	18
3	PSV/Eindhoven W	8	+12	16
4	De Graafschap W	8	−1	12
5	AZ W	7	−7	12
6	Heerenveen W	7	−2	8
7	PEC Zwolle W	7	−4	7
8	ADO Den Haag W	7	−13	7
9	Feyenoord W	8	−12	6
10	Utrecht W	7	−10	1