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Ajax W v PSV/Eindhoven W

Ajax W
1–4Full time
PSV/Eindhoven W

Eredivisie Women · SUN 18 OCT · Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30
Ajax W 1–4 PSV/Eindhoven W AJAX W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ajax W win40%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.624
The market’s Brier score0.602

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ajax W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ajax W 40%, draw 23%, PSV/Eindhoven W 36%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Ajax W v PSV/Eindhoven WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ajax W win40%
Draw23%
PSV/Eindhoven W win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 8

VenueSportcomplex De Toekomst

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ajax W

PSV/Eindhoven W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Eredivisie Women

Last match: 4 Oct · Eredivisie Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Ajax W7+1418
3PSV/Eindhoven W7+913

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ajax w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market36%
Us40%
Market36%

We make Ajax W a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ajax W v PSV/Eindhoven W1.49 – 1.40
Form · last six in Eredivisie Women this season · since 22 AugW5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 18 v 132 v 3
The market · Ajax W win36% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 10:42
Our probability · Ajax W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ajax W win40%36%+4
Draw23%27%−4
PSV/Eindhoven W win36%37%−1
Over 2.5 goals55%54%+1
Both teams to score56%58%−2
Over 1.5 goals77%76%+1
Over 3.5 goals33%34%−1
Ajax W or draw64%63%+1
Ajax W clean sheet26%––
PSV/Eindhoven W clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 5.5 8.6 5.5 2.6 1 9.0 10.7 7.7 3.7 2 6.2 8.2 5.7 2.7 3 3.1 4.2 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ajax W down, PSV/Eindhoven W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.70
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsPSV 1–1 AJA · AJA 2–1 PSV · PSV 3–1 AJA · AJA 0–2 PSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie Women this season · since 22 Aug

AJAX W

WWLWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 7–1 · 4–1

PSV/EINDHOVEN W

DWLLWW1–1 · 6–0 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 4–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Twente W7+2621
2Ajax W7+1418
3PSV/Eindhoven W7+913
4AZ W7−712
5De Graafschap W7−29
6Heerenveen W7−28
7PEC Zwolle W7−47
8ADO Den Haag W7−137
9Feyenoord W7−116
10Utrecht W7−101

The competition's standings before kick-off.