Waalwijk v Almere City FC prediction · Eerste Divisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

WaalwijkDrawAlmere City FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Waalwijk 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Waalwijk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Waalwijk 45%, draw 22%, Almere City FC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Waalwijk v Almere City FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Waalwijk win45%

Draw22%

Almere City FC win33%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueMandemakers Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Waalwijk

Almere City FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Almere City FC	12	+13	22
11	Waalwijk	12	+4	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · waalwijk winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Waalwijk a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Waalwijk v Almere City FC~~1.82 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 22~~11 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Waalwijk win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Almere City FC win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Waalwijk or draw	67%	–	–
Waalwijk clean sheet	21%	–	–
Almere City FC clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.3 5.7 4.2 2.2 1 6.6 9.4 7.4 3.9 2 5.7 8.7 6.7 3.5 3 3.5 5.3 4.1 2.1 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Waalwijk down, Almere City FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,032 Eerste Divisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Waalwijk at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Almere City FC away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Waalwijk, 1.55 for Almere City FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALM 2–2 WAA · WAA 2–0 ALM · ALM 1–4 WAA · WAA 2–0 ALM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 18 Sept

WAALWIJK

WLDLDD6–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

ALMERE CITY FC

WLWWLL1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	12	+23	29
2	VVV Venlo	12	+14	25
3	Emmen	12	+7	25
4	Almere City FC	12	+13	22
5	Roda	12	+4	22
6	NAC Breda	12	+3	21
7	FC Volendam	12	+9	19
8	Jong AZ	12	+5	17
9	Vitesse	12	−1	17
10	MVV	12	−11	17
11	Waalwijk	12	+4	16
12	Jong PSV U21	12	−2	16
13	Den Bosch	12	−3	15
14	FC OSS	12	−1	13
15	Jong Ajax	12	−11	12
16	De Graafschap	12	−11	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	−9	11
18	Dordrecht	12	−15	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	−6	9
20	Jong Utrecht	12	−12	7