Home › Football › Eerste Divisie › VVV Venlo v Jong AZ

VVV Venlo v Jong AZ

VVV Venlo

4–4Full time

Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie · FRI 16 OCT · Seacon Stadion De Koel

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

VVV Venlo 4–4 Jong AZ VVV VENLO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VVV Venlo win~~48%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.945

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay26 notes · 44 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VVV Venlo win at 48%.
0′KICK-OFF VVV Venlo v Jong AZ
2′Much as we predicted: VVV Venlo was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–22–31
13′Jong AZ find the net on 13′. 0–0 · 46–24–30
13′We said VVV Venlo at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–22–54
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' VVV Venlo 0–1 Jong AZ · Jerolldino Bergraaf
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Jong AZ win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was VVV Venlo win 24%)
22′We said VVV Venlo at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–13–79
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' VVV Venlo 0–2 Jong AZ
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
23′Jong AZ ahead on 22′ through rio robbemond. 0–2. 0–2 · 8–13–79
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Ismail Oulad M'Hand · VVV Venlo
34′L. Schmidt scores for VVV Venlo on 33′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 18–24–58
34′We said VVV Venlo at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–24–58
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' VVV Venlo 1–2 Jong AZ · L. Schmidt
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
35′9 shots for VVV Venlo, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 18–24–58
45′HALF-TIME VVV Venlo 1–2 Jong AZ
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jong AZ · On: Jasper Hartog · Off: Jerolldino Bergraaf Corrected
46′We said VVV Venlo at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–24–61
46′SECOND HALF VVV Venlo 1–2 Jong AZ
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jong AZ · On: Jasper Hartog · Off: rio robbemond
50′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 37–36–27
50′49′: L. Schmidt on the scoresheet for VVV Venlo, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 37–36–27
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' VVV Venlo 2–2 Jong AZ
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 37% now
52′We said VVV Venlo at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 2–2 · 36–37–26
55′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 11–24–65
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' VVV Venlo 2–3 Jong AZ
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 11% now
56′Jong AZ ahead on 55′ through Jasper Hartog. 2–3. 2–3 · 11–24–65
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' VVV Venlo · On: Lars de Blok · Off: Philip Heise
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' VVV Venlo · On: Luis Gorlich · Off: Ismail Oulad M'Hand
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' VVV Venlo · On: Amir rais · Off: Thomas Janssen
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Jong AZ · On: Kevin toppenberg · Off: Hessel de Wit
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Jong AZ · On: Mathijs Menu · Off: Jerolldino Bergraaf
66′We said VVV Venlo at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 3–3 · 29–49–22
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' VVV Venlo 3–3 Jong AZ
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 29% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Jong AZ win 22%)
67′Andreas Verstraeten scores for VVV Venlo on 66′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 29–50–21
67′6 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 29–50–21
70′We published VVV Venlo at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 4–3 · 80–17–3
70′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 80–17–3
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' VVV Venlo 4–3 Jong AZ
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' VVV Venlo win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
71′70′: Eanna Clancy on the scoresheet for VVV Venlo, making it 4–3. 4–3 · 81–17–3
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' VVV Venlo · On: Mattheos Tsigkas · Off: L. Schmidt
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Raf Vullers · VVV Venlo
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Jasper Hartog · Jong AZ
77′We published VVV Venlo at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 4–3 · 85–14–2
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Jong AZ · On: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe · Off: Wassim bouziane
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
83′We published VVV Venlo at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 4–3 · 90–9–1
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Jong AZ · On: Bogdan Budko · Off: Julian Sijbrands
89′We published VVV Venlo at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 4–3 · 95–5–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lars de Blok · VVV Venlo
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Jesper Zwart · Jong AZ
93′Jong AZ level it on 90′ through Jasper Hartog. 4–4. 4–4 · 3–95–2
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' VVV Venlo 4–4 Jong AZ · Jasper Hartog
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' VVV Venlo win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was VVV Venlo win 3%)
94′We said VVV Venlo at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 4–4 · 2–96–2
95′8 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–4 · 2–96–2
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Eanna Clancy · VVV Venlo
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Kevin toppenberg · Jong AZ
FTFULL TIME VVV Venlo 4–4 Jong AZ
FTVVV Venlo 4–4 Jong AZ · VVV Venlo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VVV Venlo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VVV Venlo 48%, draw 21%, Jong AZ 31%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on VVV Venlo v Jong AZBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

VVV Venlo win48%

Draw21%

Jong AZ win31%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSeacon Stadion De Koel

Line-ups

VVV Venlo

5-4-1

Jong AZ

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VVV Venlo

Jong AZ

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	VVV Venlo	10	+12	21
11	Jong AZ	10	+4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

VVV Venlo

5-4-1

13 Y. Schoonderwaldt

14 Raf Vullers

4 É. Clancy

6 A. Verstraeten

33 G. Blancquart

16 P. Heise

19 Thomas Janssen

8 Ismail Oulad M'Hand

11 N. Ait Mouhou

24 M. Odriss

17 L. Schmidt

Coach · Marinus Dijkhuizen

Substitutes

31 · M. Davis

21 · L. Görlich

43 · D. Hendrix

15 · Tijn Joosten

34 · A. Rais

22 · Zidane Taylan

9 · M. Tsigkas

5 · Lars de Blok

35 · Yousri El Anbri

47 · M. van Grootel

1 · T. Doornbusch

Jong AZ

4-2-3-1

1 I. Ka

2 J. Zwart

3 A. Natali

4 F. Andersen

5 K. Inge

6 Julian Sijbrands

8 J. Oerip

9 Jerolldino Bergraaf

10 H. de Wit

11 Wassim bouziane

7 R. Robbemond

Coach · Norbert Alblas

Substitutes

20 · K. van Ouytsel

16 · K. Zeggen

19 · K. Toppenberg

23 · J. Schipper

15 · Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe

14 · Mathijs Menu

17 · J. Hartog

12 · J. Esajas

18 · Bohdan Budko

Our number · vvv venlo winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

48% The market51%

Us48%

~~Market~~51%

We make VVV Venlo a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VVV Venlo v Jong AZ~~1.92 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 13~~3 v 11

~~The market · VVV Venlo win~~51% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VVV Venlo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VVV Venlo win	48%	51%	−3
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Jong AZ win	31%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	73%	−6
Both teams to score	66%	72%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	85%	88%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	45%	55%	−10
VVV Venlo or draw	69%	73%	−4
VVV Venlo clean sheet	22%	–	–
Jong AZ clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.1 5.2 3.7 1 6.5 9.1 7.0 3.6 2 5.9 8.8 6.7 3.4 3 3.8 5.7 4.3 2.2 4 2.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VVV Venlo down, Jong AZ across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,012 Eerste Divisie matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VVV Venlo at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Jong AZ away: 2.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for VVV Venlo, 1.52 for Jong AZ. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VVV 1–3 JON · JON 0–2 VVV · JON 3–0 VVV · VVV 0–1 JON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 31 Aug

VVV VENLO

LWWLWW2–4 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 3–0

JONG AZ

WWLDWL2–1 · 6–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	10	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	+15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	+12	21
4	Emmen	10	+4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	+1	17
6	Roda	10	+2	16
7	MVV	10	−7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	+5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	+4	14
10	Vitesse	10	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	+4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
13	FC OSS	10	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	−4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	−7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	−3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7