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Roda v Jong PSV U21

Roda

1–1Full time

Jong PSV U21

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · Parkstad Limburg

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Roda 1–1 Jong PSV U21 RODA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Roda win~~54%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.961

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.952

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Roda win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Roda was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
1′KICK-OFF Roda v Jong PSV U21
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Roda win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Roda 0–0 Jong PSV U21 · Joshua Nisbet
45′HALF-TIME Roda 0–0 Jong PSV U21
46′SECOND HALF Roda 0–0 Jong PSV U21
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Roda · On: Mitchel Paulissen · Off: X. van den Berg
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Roda · On: Rayan Khoums · Off: Koen Jansen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Roda · On: Joey Sleegers · Off: Dario Van Den Buijs
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Jong PSV U21 · On: Kyano Penso · Off: Lyfe Oldenstam
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Jong PSV U21 · On: Jairo Beerens · Off: Samuel Dumbili
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Roda 0–1 Jong PSV U21 · Austyn Jones
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Roda · On: Nadir Maoujoudi · Off: Jeremiah Mensah
82′PENALTY MISSED · 82' Austyn Jones · Jong PSV U21
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Roda 1–1 Jong PSV U21 · Austyn Jones
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Roda 1–1 Jong PSV U21 · Mitchel Paulissen
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Jong PSV U21 · On: Dyran Stam · Off: Philip Holseter-Karlsen
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Jong PSV U21 · On: Dyran Stam · Off: Philip Holseter-Karlsen
FTRoda 1–1 Jong PSV U21 · Roda win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Roda win54%

Draw22%

Jong PSV U21 win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Parkstad Limburg

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Roda

3-4-2-1

1 J. Treichel

3 M. Tol

33 D. Van den Buijs

15 L. Beerten

14 X. van den Berg

11 D. Dorenbosch

4 J. Nisbet

5 K. Jansen

8 J. Mensah

25 Bram Marsman

9 A. van den Hurk

Coach · R. Penders

Substitutes

2 · Luuk Verheij

7 · C. Seedorf

10 · F. Schenten

6 · M. Paulissen

17 · Guilherme Martinho Peixoto

32 · N. Maoujoudi

24 · J. Déom

19 · N. Crabu

20 · M. Bentoumi

22 · Rayan Khoums

26 · J. Sleegers

21 · M. Stojcevic

Jong PSV U21

4-3-3

1 T. Smolenaars

2 L. Oldenstam

3 M. Bresser

4 F. Merién

5 M. Monamay

6 B. Mulders

10 P. Holseter-Karlsen

8 S. Sidibe

7 S. Dumbili

9 A. Jones

11 R. Manuhutu

Coach · Rens Sleegers

Substitutes

17 · J. Beerens

18 · S Ditmer

16 · Stijn Kuijsten

23 · Eskil Moedt

15 · K. Penso

19 · Givenciyo Sabajo

14 · D. Stam

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Roda

3-4-2-1

1 J. Treichel

3 M. Tol

33 D. Van den Buijs

15 L. Beerten

14 X. van den Berg

11 D. Dorenbosch

4 J. Nisbet

5 K. Jansen

8 J. Mensah

25 Bram Marsman

9 A. van den Hurk

Coach · R. Penders

Substitutes

2 · Luuk Verheij

7 · C. Seedorf

10 · F. Schenten

6 · M. Paulissen

17 · Guilherme Martinho Peixoto

32 · N. Maoujoudi

24 · J. Déom

19 · N. Crabu

20 · M. Bentoumi

22 · Rayan Khoums

26 · J. Sleegers

21 · M. Stojcevic

Jong PSV U21

4-3-3

1 T. Smolenaars

2 L. Oldenstam

3 M. Bresser

4 F. Merién

5 M. Monamay

6 B. Mulders

10 P. Holseter-Karlsen

8 S. Sidibe

7 S. Dumbili

9 A. Jones

11 R. Manuhutu

Coach · Rens Sleegers

Substitutes

17 · J. Beerens

18 · S Ditmer

16 · Stijn Kuijsten

23 · Eskil Moedt

15 · K. Penso

19 · Givenciyo Sabajo

14 · D. Stam

Our number · roda winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

54% The market55%

Us54%

~~Market~~55%

We make Roda a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Roda win	54%	55%	−1
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Jong PSV U21 win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	65%	−5
Both teams to score	59%	63%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	84%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	44%	−7
Roda or draw	76%	78%	−2
Roda clean sheet	30%	–	–
Jong PSV U21 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.4 5.7 3.3 1 8.9 10.0 6.1 2.5 2 8.1 9.6 5.7 2.3 3 5.2 6.1 3.6 4 2.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Roda down, Jong PSV U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Roda at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jong PSV U21 away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Roda, 1.20 for Jong PSV U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ROD 0–2 JON · JON 0–1 ROD · ROD 2–1 JON · JON 2–3 ROD

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

RODA

DDWDWL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–2

JONG PSV U21

DDWLDL2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7