Roda v Jong AZ prediction · Eerste Divisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RodaDrawJong AZ

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Roda 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Roda 51%, draw 22%, Jong AZ 28%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Roda v Jong AZBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Roda win51%

Draw22%

Jong AZ win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueParkstad Limburg Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Roda

Jong AZ

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Roda	12	+4	22
8	Jong AZ	12	+5	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roda winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

51% The market52%

Us51%

~~Market~~52%

We make Roda a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Roda v Jong AZ~~1.89 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 17~~5 v 8

~~The market · Roda win~~52% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Roda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Roda win	51%	52%	−1
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Jong AZ win	28%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	63%	65%	−2
Both teams to score	62%	65%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Roda or draw	72%	75%	−3
Roda clean sheet	26%	–	–
Jong AZ clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 5.6 3.6 1 7.8 9.7 6.6 3.0 2 7.0 9.3 6.2 2.8 3 4.4 5.9 3.9 4 2.1 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Roda down, Jong AZ across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,032 Eerste Divisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Roda at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Jong AZ away: 3.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Roda, 1.34 for Jong AZ. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JON 2–0 ROD · ROD 2–3 JON · ROD 3–3 JON · JON 6–1 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 11 Sept

RODA

DWLDWW0–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

JONG AZ

LDWLDW2–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 4–4 · 5–4

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	12	+23	29
2	VVV Venlo	12	+14	25
3	Emmen	12	+7	25
4	Almere City FC	12	+13	22
5	Roda	12	+4	22
6	NAC Breda	12	+3	21
7	FC Volendam	12	+9	19
8	Jong AZ	12	+5	17
9	Vitesse	12	−1	17
10	MVV	12	−11	17
11	Waalwijk	12	+4	16
12	Jong PSV U21	12	−2	16
13	Den Bosch	12	−3	15
14	FC OSS	12	−1	13
15	Jong Ajax	12	−11	12
16	De Graafschap	12	−11	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	−9	11
18	Dordrecht	12	−15	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	−6	9
20	Jong Utrecht	12	−12	7