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NAC Breda v MVV

NAC Breda

1–0Full time

MVV

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · Rat Verlegh Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

NAC Breda 1–0 MVV NAC BREDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NAC Breda win~~60%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.242

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.117

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NAC Breda win at 60%.
1′KICK-OFF NAC Breda v MVV
2′Much as we predicted: NAC Breda was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–20–21
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' NAC Breda 1–0 MVV · Charles-Andreas Brym
7′5′ and it is 1–0: Charles-Andreas Brym on the scoresheet for NAC Breda. 1–0 · 79–13–8
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' NAC Breda win: 60% at kick-off, 79% now
13′We published NAC Breda at 60%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–13–8
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–14–7
31′SUBSTITUTION · 30' MVV · On: Naim Matoug · Off: Toni Vinogradac
45′HALF-TIME NAC Breda 1–0 MVV
46′SECOND HALF NAC Breda 1–0 MVV
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Jan Van den Bergh · NAC Breda
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' NAC Breda · On: Brahim Ghalidi · Off: Gabriel Osei Misehouy
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Robert Klaasen · MVV
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' MVV · On: Mika Luijendijk · Off: Sil van der Wegen Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' NAC Breda · On: Mylan Brouwers · Off: Jan Van den Bergh
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' MVV · On: Thijme Verheijen · Off: Noa El Hamdaoui
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' MVV · On: Delano Asante · Off: Robert Klaasen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' NAC Breda · On: Pepijn Reulen · Off: Charles-Andreas Brym
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' NAC Breda · On: Fredrik Jensen · Off: Maximilien Balard
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Naim Matoug · MVV
FTNAC Breda 1–0 MVV · NAC Breda win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

NAC Breda win60%

Draw19%

MVV win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Rat Verlegh Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

NAC Breda

4-2-3-1

1 M. Verrips

2 B. Lucassen

4 L. Greiml

22 R. Hillen

12 J. Van den Bergh

78 J. Van Hecke

6 M. Balard

14 K. Sowah

10 M. Nassoh

28 C. Brym

11 G. Misehouy

Coach · R. Kruijs

Substitutes

35 · M. Brouwers

5 · J. Candelaria

19 · P. Gladon

33 · E. Ikpia

23 · R. Kortsmit

31 · K. Lamprou

34 · I. Nazih

8 · F. Oldrup Jensen

26 · P. Reulen

32 · R. van Aarst

17 · M. Bouchouari

55 · B. Ghalidi

MVV

4-4-2

1 H. Wentges

25 Yael Liesdek

6 F. Dicke

22 Sven Bouland

17 S. Wegen

7 L. Daneels

18 E. Sierra

16 R. Klaasen

24 N. El Hamdaoui

9 T. Vinogradac

10 O. Dumont

Coach · A. Jonker

Substitutes

31 · Yanis Bourard

21 · D. Asante

20 · A. Amgar

12 · S. van der Heijden

29 · O. Zimuangana

11 · T. Verheijen

13 · S. Timmers

27 · Naïm Matoug

19 · Mika Luijendijk

14 · M. Kuipers

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

NAC Breda

4-2-3-1

1 M. Verrips

2 B. Lucassen

4 L. Greiml

22 R. Hillen

12 J. Van den Bergh

78 J. Van Hecke

6 M. Balard

14 K. Sowah

10 M. Nassoh

28 C. Brym

11 G. Misehouy

Coach · R. Kruijs

Substitutes

35 · M. Brouwers

5 · J. Candelaria

19 · P. Gladon

33 · E. Ikpia

23 · R. Kortsmit

31 · K. Lamprou

34 · I. Nazih

8 · F. Oldrup Jensen

26 · P. Reulen

32 · R. van Aarst

17 · M. Bouchouari

55 · B. Ghalidi

MVV

4-4-2

1 H. Wentges

25 Yael Liesdek

6 F. Dicke

22 Sven Bouland

17 S. Wegen

7 L. Daneels

18 E. Sierra

16 R. Klaasen

24 N. El Hamdaoui

9 T. Vinogradac

10 O. Dumont

Coach · A. Jonker

Substitutes

31 · Yanis Bourard

21 · D. Asante

20 · A. Amgar

12 · S. van der Heijden

29 · O. Zimuangana

11 · T. Verheijen

13 · S. Timmers

27 · Naïm Matoug

19 · Mika Luijendijk

14 · M. Kuipers

Our number · nac breda winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

60% The market72%

Us60%

~~Market~~72%

We make NAC Breda a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nac breda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 69% to 72% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NAC Breda win	60%	72%	−12
Draw	19%	17%	+2
MVV win	21%	11%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	69%	69%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	56%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	48%	0
NAC Breda or draw	79%	89%	−10
NAC Breda clean sheet	28%	–	–
MVV clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 2.7 3.9 2.4 1 6.6 8.0 5.3 2.3 2 7.3 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 5.5 7.0 4.5 4 3.2 4.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NAC Breda down, MVV across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.83 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NAC Breda at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). MVV away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.30 goals for NAC Breda, 1.29 for MVV. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NAC 1–2 MVV · MVV 1–4 NAC · NAC 4–1 MVV · MVV 3–1 NAC

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

NAC BREDA

DLLWWD2–2 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–2

MVV

WDLLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–6 · 2–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7