NAC Breda v Heracles

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Heracles win at 55%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Heracles 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 26–19–55
3. 1′KICK-OFF NAC Breda v Heracles
4. 4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Sem Scheperman · Heracles
5. 11′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–0 · 46–21–32
6. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' NAC Breda 1–0 Heracles
7. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Heracles win: 55% at kick-off, 32% now
8. 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' NAC Breda win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Heracles win 54%)
9. 12′NAC Breda ahead on 11′ through Charles-Andreas Brym. 1–0. 1–0 · 47–21–32
10. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' NAC Breda 1–1 Heracles
11. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Heracles win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
12. 19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Heracles win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was NAC Breda win 48%)
13. 20′Tristan Van Gilst scores for Heracles on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–22–52
14. 27′SUBSTITUTION · 27' NAC Breda · On: Brahim Ghalidi · Off: Charles-Andreas Brym
15. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Djevencio van der Kust · Heracles
16. 37′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 25–27–48
17. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' David Vicente · Heracles
18. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Heracles win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
19. 45′SECOND HALF NAC Breda 1–1 Heracles
20. 47′HALF-TIME NAC Breda 1–1 Heracles
21. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Heracles · On: Mimeirhel Benita · Off: David Vicente
22. 50′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 24–32–43
23. 59′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 23–38–39
24. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Heracles win 39%)
25. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Heracles win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
26. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Heracles · On: Mario Borac · Off: Sem Scheperman
27. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Heracles · On: Jeff Reine-Adélaïde · Off: Manny Rodriguez Baldera
28. 73′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 18–54–29
29. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Heracles win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
30. 77′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 15–61–24
31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' NAC Breda · On: Imran Nazih · Off: Jannes Van Hecke
32. 81′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 12–70–18
33. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Kamal Sowah · NAC Breda
34. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Jeff Reine-Adélaïde · Heracles
35. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Heracles win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
36. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' NAC Breda · On: Paul Gladon · Off: Moussa Soumano
37. 84′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 9–78–13
38. 88′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 6–84–9
39. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Heracles · On: David Tomic · Off: Tristan Van Gilst
40. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Heracles · On: Mike te Wierik · Off: Chafik Abbas
41. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Heracles win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
42. 93′We said Heracles at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 2–94–4
43. FTFULL TIME NAC Breda 1–1 Heracles
44. FTNAC Breda 1–1 Heracles · Heracles win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.