MVV v Heracles prediction · Eerste Divisie

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

MVV 1–5 Heracles HERACLES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heracles win~~66%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.176

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.172

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Heracles win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Heracles 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 17–17–66
1′KICK-OFF MVV v Heracles
33′We said Heracles at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–0 · 43–26–31
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 43–26–31
33′33′: Sil van der Wegen on the scoresheet for MVV, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 43–26–31
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' MVV 1–0 Heracles
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Heracles win: 66% at kick-off, 31% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' MVV win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Heracles win 31%)
37′We said Heracles at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 44–27–29
42′We said Heracles at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 18–28–54
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' MVV 1–1 Heracles
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Heracles win: 66% at kick-off, 54% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Heracles win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was MVV win 18%)
43′Heracles level it on 42′ through Maurice Wrusch. 1–1. 1–1 · 18–29–53
44′We said Heracles at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–2 · 5–13–82
44′Chafik Abbas scores for Heracles on 44′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–13–82
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' MVV 1–2 Heracles
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Heracles win: 66% at kick-off, 82% now
45′Chafik Abbas scores for Heracles on 43′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–13–82
45′HALF-TIME MVV 1–2 Heracles
46′SECOND HALF MVV 1–2 Heracles
51′We said Heracles at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 1–3 · 1–3–96
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' MVV 1–3 Heracles
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Heracles win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
52′51′: Manny Rodriguez Baldera on the scoresheet for Heracles, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–3–96
52′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–3–96
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Heracles · On: Max Hauswirth · Off: Thomas Bruns
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Heracles · On: Tristan Van Gilst · Off: David Tomic
62′We said Heracles at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' MVV 1–4 Heracles
63′Heracles ahead on 62′ through Jean-Paul N'djoli. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
63′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' MVV · On: Thijme Verheijen · Off: Robert Klaasen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Heracles · On: Mario Engels · Off: Manny Rodriguez Baldera
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Heracles · On: Mike te Wierik · Off: Mimeirhel Benita
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' MVV · On: Delano Asante · Off: Yael Liesdek
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' MVV · On: Onesime Zimuangana · Off: Naim Matoug
82′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' MVV 1–5 Heracles
83′Jean-Paul N'djoli scores for Heracles on 82′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Heracles · On: Daniel Van Kaam · Off: Djevencio van der Kust
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Lennerd Daneels · MVV
FTFULL TIME MVV 1–5 Heracles
FTMVV 1–5 Heracles · Heracles win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heracles are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MVV 17%, draw 17%, Heracles 66%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on MVV v HeraclesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

MVV win17%

Draw17%

Heracles win66%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueDe Geusselt

Line-ups

MVV

4-2-3-1

Heracles

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MVV

Heracles

9Days since last match9

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

MVV

4-2-3-1

1 H. Wentges

17 S. Wegen

6 F. Dicke

22 Sven Bouland

25 Yael Liesdek

16 R. Klaasen

18 E. Sierra

19 Mika Luijendijk

10 O. Dumont

27 Naïm Matoug

7 L. Daneels

Coach · A. Jonker

Substitutes

12 · S. van der Heijden

29 · O. Zimuangana

11 · T. Verheijen

13 · S. Timmers

14 · M. Kuipers

31 · Yanis Bourard

21 · D. Asante

20 · A. Amgar

33 · Tristan Bomble

Heracles

4-2-3-1

1 F. de Keijzer

2 M. Benita

4 D. Mirani

14 M. Wrusch

25 Manny

5 D. van der Kust

32 S. Scheperman

7 C. Abbas

10 T. Bruns

6 D. Tomić

27 J. N'djoli

Coach · V. Heilmann

Substitutes

35 · S. Bultman

8 · M. Engels

22 · Tarik Hamamioglu

18 · M. Hauswirth

16 · T. Jansink

9 · V. Poppler

33 · L. Zeevalkink

23 · M. te Wierik

17 · T. van Gilst

26 · D. van Kaam

30 · D. van Oorschot

3 · Mario Borac

Our number · heracles winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market66%

Us66%

~~Market~~66%

We make Heracles a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MVV v Heracles~~1.20 – 2.53

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 25~~8 v 1

~~The market · Heracles win~~66% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Heracles win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MVV win	17%	15%	+2
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Heracles win	66%	66%	0
Over 2.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	60%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	85%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	51%	47%	+4
MVV or draw	34%	34%	0
MVV clean sheet	9%	–	–
Heracles clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%

0123450 2.4 6.4 7.6 6.4 4.1 2.21 3.3 7.1 8.9 7.4 4.7 2.52 4.4 5.3 4.4 2.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MVV down, Heracles across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,017 Eerste Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MVV at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Heracles away: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for MVV, 2.53 for Heracles. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MVV 0–2 HER · HER 2–2 MVV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept

MVV

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–4 · 1–6 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

HERACLES

WWLWDW5–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	10	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	11	+14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	+12	22
4	Emmen	11	+5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	+3	20
6	Vitesse	11	+1	17
7	Roda	10	+2	16
8	MVV	10	−7	16
9	FC Volendam	10	+5	15
10	Waalwijk	10	+4	14
11	Jong AZ	11	+4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	−3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
14	FC OSS	11	−1	12
15	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	−8	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	−5	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7