Jong Utrecht v Roda prediction · Eerste Divisie

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:30

Jong Utrecht 1–2 Roda RODA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Roda win~~44%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.471

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.347

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Roda win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Roda was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
1′KICK-OFF Jong Utrecht v Roda
44′We said Roda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 65–24–11
44′44′: Massien Ghaddari on the scoresheet for Jong Utrecht, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–24–11
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Jong Utrecht 1–0 Roda
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Roda win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Jong Utrecht win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Roda win 37%)
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 65–24–11
45′HALF-TIME Jong Utrecht 1–0 Roda
45′SECOND HALF Jong Utrecht 1–0 Roda
50′We said Roda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Massien Ghaddari · Jong Utrecht
57′We said Roda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 23–46–30
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Jong Utrecht 1–1 Roda
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Roda win: 44% at kick-off, 30% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Jong Utrecht win 70%)
58′Roda level it on 57′ through Dyon Dorenbosch. 1–1. 1–1 · 23–47–30
59′We said Roda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–48–29
64′11 shots for Roda, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 21–53–27
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jong Utrecht · On: Driss Laaouina · Off: Ferdinand Pohl
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Jong Utrecht · On: Noa Malik Dundas · Off: Richie Omorowa
68′We said Roda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Roda win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jong Utrecht · On: Bjorn Menzo · Off: Per Kloosterboer
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Roda · On: Bram Marsman · Off: Koen Jansen
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Roda · On: X. van den Berg · Off: Guilherme Martinho Peixoto
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Jong Utrecht · On: tijn boggende den · Off: Jaygo van Ommeren
74′We said Roda at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–65–19
74′13 shots for Roda, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 15–65–19
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Roda · On: Fynn Schenten · Off: Cain Seedorf
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Roda · On: Jeremiah Mensah · Off: Mitchel Paulissen
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Roda win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
81′17 shots for Roda, 10 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 10–78–12
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Jong Utrecht · On: Noël Beulens · Off: Jamie Schuldes
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Bram Marsman · Roda
89′We published Roda at 44%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Jong Utrecht 1–2 Roda
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Roda win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Roda win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 90%)
90′Anthony van den Hurk scores for Roda on 88′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–4–96
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Roda · On: Luuk Verheij · Off: Joshua Nisbet
FTFULL TIME Jong Utrecht 1–2 Roda
FTJong Utrecht 1–2 Roda · Roda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jong Utrecht 31%, draw 25%, Roda 44%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Jong Utrecht v RodaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Jong Utrecht win31%

Draw25%

Roda win44%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Line-ups

Jong Utrecht

4-3-3

Roda

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jong Utrecht

Roda

10Days since last match10

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Roda	10	+2	16
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jong Utrecht

4-3-3

1 M. Eppink

2 Yousri Sbai

3 J. Schuldes

14 P. Kloosterboer

5 Viggo Plantinga

8 J. van Ommeren

6 W. Kooy

7 F. Pohl

11 E. C. Owen

9 R. Omorowa

10 Massien Ghaddari

Coach · Omar Rziki

Substitutes

19 · N. Dundas

13 · A. Aslani

12 · Noël Beulens

31 · Justin Eversen

16 · Kenji Goes

15 · Matyas Havelka

18 · D. Laaouina

17 · Bjorn Menzo

21 · L. Rietveld

32 · M. Tsankov

20 · Tijn den Boggende

Roda

3-4-2-1

1 J. Treichel

3 M. Tol

33 D. Van den Buijs

15 L. Beerten

17 Guilherme Martinho Peixoto

11 D. Dorenbosch

4 J. Nisbet

5 K. Jansen

7 C. Seedorf

6 M. Paulissen

9 A. van den Hurk

Coach · R. Penders

Substitutes

14 · X. van den Berg

2 · Luuk Verheij

21 · M. Stojcevic

26 · J. Sleegers

10 · F. Schenten

32 · N. Maoujoudi

25 · Bram Marsman

24 · J. Déom

8 · J. Mensah

19 · N. Crabu

20 · M. Bentoumi

28 · J. van Damme

Our number · roda winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

44% The market52%

Us44%

~~Market~~52%

We make Roda a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jong Utrecht v Roda~~1.22 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 16~~20 v 7

~~The market · Roda win~~52% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Roda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jong Utrecht win	31%	24%	+7
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Roda win	44%	52%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	81%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Jong Utrecht or draw	56%	48%	+8
Jong Utrecht clean sheet	23%	–	–
Roda clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 10.3 7.4 3.7 1 8.4 11.6 8.9 4.5 2 4.9 7.2 5.4 2.7 3 2.0 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jong Utrecht down, Roda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,019 Eerste Divisie matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.4% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jong Utrecht at home: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Roda away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Jong Utrecht, 1.50 for Roda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JON 1–3 ROD · ROD 1–1 JON · ROD 3–0 JON · JON 1–3 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 31 Aug

JONG UTRECHT

LDWWLL1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

RODA

DWDWLD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	11	+23	28
2	Almere City FC	11	+14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	+12	22
4	Emmen	11	+5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	+3	20
6	Vitesse	11	+1	17
7	Roda	10	+2	16
8	FC Volendam	11	+5	16
9	MVV	11	−11	16
10	Waalwijk	11	+4	15
11	Jong AZ	11	+4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	−3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
14	FC OSS	11	−1	12
15	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	−8	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	−5	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7