Jong PSV U21 v Dordrecht prediction · Eerste Divisie

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:30

Jong PSV U21 0–1 Dordrecht JONG PSV U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jong PSV U21 win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.712

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.720

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jong PSV U21 win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jong PSV U21 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–22–33
1′KICK-OFF Jong PSV U21 v Dordrecht
12′J. de Bie scores for Dordrecht on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 23–22–56
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Boet Mulders · Jong PSV U21
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Jong PSV U21 0–1 Dordrecht · J. de Bie (penalty)
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Jong PSV U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 23% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Dordrecht win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Jong PSV U21 win 44%)
13′We said Jong PSV U21 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–22–56
26′We said Jong PSV U21 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 18–23–59
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Jong PSV U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' nicolas rossi · Dordrecht
43′We said Jong PSV U21 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
45′HALF-TIME Jong PSV U21 0–1 Dordrecht
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jong PSV U21 · On: Samuel Dumbili · Off: Sami Ouaissa
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jong PSV U21 · On: Michael Bresser · Off: Philip Holseter-Karlsen
47′SECOND HALF Jong PSV U21 0–1 Dordrecht
58′We said Jong PSV U21 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Dordrecht · On: Siginho Gerardo · Off: nicolas rossi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Jong PSV U21 · On: Jairo Beerens · Off: Fabio Kluit
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Jong PSV U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
73′We said Jong PSV U21 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Senne Vugts · Dordrecht
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Jong PSV U21 · On: Lyfe Oldenstam · Off: Kyano Penso
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Jong PSV U21 · On: Mathieu Buyens · Off: Boet Mulders
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Dordrecht · On: Lucas Gardenier · Off: Robin van Asten
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Dordrecht · On: Adil Lechkar · Off: J. de Bie
FTFULL TIME Jong PSV U21 0–1 Dordrecht
FTJong PSV U21 0–1 Dordrecht · Jong PSV U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jong PSV U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jong PSV U21 46%, draw 22%, Dordrecht 33%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Jong PSV U21 v DordrechtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Jong PSV U21 win46%

Draw22%

Dordrecht win33%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueDe Herdgang

Line-ups

Jong PSV U21

4-2-3-1

Dordrecht

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jong PSV U21

Dordrecht

10Days since last match10

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jong PSV U21

4-2-3-1

1 Khadim Ngom

2 K. Penso

3 F. Merién

4 M. Monamay

5 R. Manuhutu

6 B. Mulders

8 S. Sidibe

10 P. Holseter-Karlsen

7 S. Ouaissa

11 F. Kluit

9 A. Jones

Coach · Rens Sleegers

Substitutes

19 · S. Dumbili

15 · L. Oldenstam

18 · Mathieu Buyens

14 · M. Bresser

17 · J. Beerens

16 · Kane Aerts

Dordrecht

4-2-3-1

28 T. Coremans

22 J. van Aken

4 J. Pinas

3 S. Henderikx

5 C. Mpanzu

8 Senne Vugts

6 L. Riccio

18 Robin van Asten

21 M. Vetkal

11 N. Rossi

9 J. de Bie

Coach · Paul Nuijten

Substitutes

51 · Lucas Gardenier

44 · B. Hardley

29 · Siginho Gerardo

13 · Dean Hogervorst

2 · A. Lechkar

15 · Y. M'Bemba

1 · Finn Oldenstam

16 · L. Román

23 · L. Woudenberg

17 · Y. Younous

14 · Bae Seung-Gyun

Our number · jong psv u21 winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Jong PSV U21 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jong PSV U21 v Dordrecht~~1.87 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~13 v 19

~~The market · Jong PSV U21 win~~44% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jong PSV U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jong PSV U21 win	46%	44%	+2
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Dordrecht win	33%	32%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	66%	68%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Jong PSV U21 or draw	67%	68%	−1
Jong PSV U21 clean sheet	22%	–	–
Dordrecht clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.1 5.5 4.0 2.1 1 6.5 9.2 7.3 3.7 2 5.8 8.7 6.7 3.5 3 3.6 5.4 4.2 2.2 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jong PSV U21 down, Dordrecht across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,019 Eerste Divisie matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.4% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dordrecht away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Jong PSV U21, 1.54 for Dordrecht. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JON 1–1 DOR · DOR 1–2 JON · JON 1–2 DOR · DOR 2–0 JON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 31 Aug

JONG PSV U21

DWLDLD1–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

DORDRECHT

LLLWDL3–6 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	11	+23	28
2	Almere City FC	11	+14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	+12	22
4	Emmen	11	+5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	+3	20
6	Vitesse	11	+1	17
7	Roda	10	+2	16
8	FC Volendam	11	+5	16
9	MVV	11	−11	16
10	Waalwijk	11	+4	15
11	Jong AZ	11	+4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	−3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
14	FC OSS	11	−1	12
15	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	−8	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	−5	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7