Jong AZ v Helmond Sport

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Jong AZ win at 55%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Jong AZ was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–21–24
3. 1′KICK-OFF Jong AZ v Helmond Sport
4. 17′16′: Bogdan Budko on the scoresheet for Jong AZ, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
5. 17′We published Jong AZ at 55%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Jong AZ 1–0 Helmond Sport · Bogdan Budko
7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
8. 23′Jasper Hartog scores for Jong AZ on 22′. 1–0 · 76–16–8
9. 23′We published Jong AZ at 55%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
10. 23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Jong AZ 2–0 Helmond Sport · Jasper Hartog
11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 92% now
12. 29′7 shots for Helmond Sport, 2 the other way, and they still trail 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
13. 30′Tarik Essakkati scores for Helmond Sport on 29′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 76–16–8
14. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Jong AZ 2–1 Helmond Sport
15. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
16. 31′Helmond Sport have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 76–16–8
17. 36′35′: Dean·Huiberts on the scoresheet for Helmond Sport, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 47–30–24
18. 36′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 47–30–24
19. 36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Jong AZ 2–2 Helmond Sport · Dean·Huiberts (assist Tarik Essakkati)
20. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 47% now
21. 37′Helmond Sport have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 47–30–23
22. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
23. 45′HALF-TIME Jong AZ 2–2 Helmond Sport
24. 45′SECOND HALF Jong AZ 2–2 Helmond Sport
25. 46′We said Jong AZ at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 2–2 · 43–34–23
26. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jong AZ · On: Rayan Atikallah · Off: Andrea Natali
27. 52′51′: Jasper Hartog on the scoresheet for Jong AZ. 2–2 · 41–37–22
28. 53′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 78–17–5
29. 53′⚽ GOAL · 51' Jong AZ 3–2 Helmond Sport · Jasper Hartog (assist Jesper Zwart)
30. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
31. 55′We said Jong AZ at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–39–21 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
32. 59′We published Jong AZ at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 3–2 · 80–16–4
33. 60′6 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 36–43–20
34. 60′Michel Simon Ludwig scores for Helmond Sport on 59′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 36–43–20
35. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Jong AZ 3–3 Helmond Sport
36. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 36% now
37. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Jong AZ win 80%)
38. 61′Helmond Sport have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 3–3. 3–3 · 36–44–20
39. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
40. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Jong AZ · On: Gijs Groot · Off: rio robbemond
41. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Jong AZ · On: Kiani Inge · Off: Jasper Hartog
42. 64′We said Jong AZ at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 3–3 · 34–47–19
43. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Helmond Sport · On: Livio Cicero · Off: Thomas Poll Corrected
44. 70′We said Jong AZ at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 3–3 · 29–54–17
45. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
46. 75′We said Jong AZ at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 3–3 · 24–62–14
47. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Jong AZ · On: Adam Ouaziz · Off: Bogdan Budko
48. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Helmond Sport · On: Flor Van Den Eynden · Off: Lovro Golic
49. 79′78′: Frej Elkjær Andersen on the scoresheet for Jong AZ. 3–3 · 19–69–12
50. 79′We published Jong AZ at 55%. Our model now makes it 88%. 4–3 · 88–11–1
51. 79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Jong AZ 4–3 Helmond Sport · Frej Elkjær Andersen
52. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 88% now
53. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Jong AZ win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 69%)
54. 80′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 89–10–1
55. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Jong AZ · On: Melle Roede · Off: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe
56. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Helmond Sport · On: Labinot Bajrami · Off: Joep van der Sluijs
57. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Helmond Sport · On: Kiton Ekoli · Off: Tarik Essakkati
58. 88′We published Jong AZ at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 4–3 · 95–5–0
59. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
60. 90′We said Jong AZ at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 4–4 · 6–90–4
61. 90′8 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–4 · 6–90–4
62. 90′Full time, 5–4. We called Jong AZ at 55% — that one lands. 5–4 · 100–0–0
63. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Helmond Sport · On: alen dizdarevic · Off: Xander van der Velde
64. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Jong AZ 4–4 Helmond Sport
65. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 6% now
66. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Jong AZ win 96%)
67. 91′Helmond Sport level it on 90′ through Kiton Ekoli. 4–4. 4–4 · 5–91–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
68. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
69. 92′We said Jong AZ at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 4–4 · 4–93–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
70. 92′21 shots for Helmond Sport, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 4–4 · 4–93–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
71. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Jong AZ · On: J. Esajas · Off: Kevin toppenberg
72. 94′That is 9, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 5–4 · 99–1–0
73. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Jong AZ 5–4 Helmond Sport
74. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Jong AZ win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
75. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Jong AZ win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 96%)
76. 95′J. Esajas scores for Jong AZ on 90′ — 5–4. 5–4 · 99–1–0
77. FTFULL TIME Jong AZ 5–4 Helmond Sport
78. FTJong AZ 5–4 Helmond Sport · Jong AZ win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.