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Jong AZ v Den Bosch

Jong AZ

0–1Full time

Den Bosch

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · AFAS Trainingscomplex

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Jong AZ 0–1 Den Bosch JONG AZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jong AZ win~~53%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.861

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jong AZ win at 53%.
1′KICK-OFF Jong AZ v Den Bosch
2′Little has changed for our model: Jong AZ 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–21–26
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Jong AZ 0–1 Den Bosch
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Jong AZ 0–1 Den Bosch
41′Hessel Eikelboom scores for Den Bosch on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Jong AZ win: 53% at kick-off, 19% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Den Bosch win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Jong AZ win 19%)
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Julian Oerip · Jong AZ
45′SECOND HALF Jong AZ 0–1 Den Bosch
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Den Bosch · On: Wang Bohao · Off: Jack de Vries
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jong AZ · On: Gijs Groot · Off: Jerolldino Armantrading
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Jong AZ · On: Julian Sijbrands · Off: Wassim bouziane
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Jong AZ · On: Jasper Hartog · Off: Kevin toppenberg
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Den Bosch · On: Ilias Boumassaoudi · Off: Sebastian Karlsson Grach
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Jong AZ · On: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe · Off: Julian Oerip Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Jong AZ · On: Mathijs Menu · Off: Andrea Natali
FTFULL TIME Jong AZ 0–1 Den Bosch
FTJong AZ 0–1 Den Bosch · Jong AZ win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jong AZ win53%

Draw20%

Den Bosch win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · AFAS Trainingscomplex

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Jong AZ

4-2-3-1

1 K. Zeggen

2 J. Zwart

3 A. Natali

4 F. Andersen

5 K. Inge

6 R. Robbemond

8 J. Oerip

7 K. Toppenberg

10 H. de Wit

11 Wassim bouziane

9 Jerolldino Armantrading

Coach · Norbert Alblas

Substitutes

21 · Julian Sijbrands

19 · Gijs Groot

18 · Bohdan Budko

15 · J. Esajas

20 · J. Hartog

16 · I. Ka

14 · Mathijs Menu

17 · Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe

23 · J. Schipper

12 · K. van Ouytsel

Den Bosch

3-1-4-2

1 P. van de Merbel

22 Jeffry Fortes

25 Silvan Broker

3 S. Maas

18 H. Eikelboom

2 S. Barglan

11 J. De Vries

10 Devon Decorte

33 M. Laros

8 K. Monzialo

9 S. Karlsson Grach

Coach · Bart Schreuder

Substitutes

31 · E. Bijlsma

40 · I. Boumassaoudi

55 · G. Hessels

27 · L. Hoffman

21 · F. Murre

17 · E. Semedo

16 · Wang Bohao

54 · Jari De Kruijff

41 · K. de Rooij

4 · J. van Heertum

35 · B. van Schuppen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Jong AZ

4-2-3-1

1 K. Zeggen

2 J. Zwart

3 A. Natali

4 F. Andersen

5 K. Inge

6 R. Robbemond

8 J. Oerip

7 K. Toppenberg

10 H. de Wit

11 Wassim bouziane

9 Jerolldino Armantrading

Coach · Norbert Alblas

Substitutes

21 · Julian Sijbrands

19 · Gijs Groot

18 · Bohdan Budko

15 · J. Esajas

20 · J. Hartog

16 · I. Ka

14 · Mathijs Menu

17 · Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe

23 · J. Schipper

12 · K. van Ouytsel

Den Bosch

3-1-4-2

1 P. van de Merbel

22 Jeffry Fortes

25 Silvan Broker

3 S. Maas

18 H. Eikelboom

2 S. Barglan

11 J. De Vries

10 Devon Decorte

33 M. Laros

8 K. Monzialo

9 S. Karlsson Grach

Coach · Bart Schreuder

Substitutes

31 · E. Bijlsma

40 · I. Boumassaoudi

55 · G. Hessels

27 · L. Hoffman

21 · F. Murre

17 · E. Semedo

16 · Wang Bohao

54 · Jari De Kruijff

41 · K. de Rooij

4 · J. van Heertum

35 · B. van Schuppen

Our number · jong az winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

53% The market49%

Us53%

~~Market~~49%

We make Jong AZ a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jong AZ win	53%	49%	+4
Draw	20%	22%	−1
Den Bosch win	27%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	69%	77%	−9
Both teams to score	66%	75%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	86%	90%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	47%	60%	−13
Jong AZ or draw	73%	71%	+2
Jong AZ clean sheet	24%	–	–
Den Bosch clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.8 4.4 3.0 1 6.3 8.5 6.2 3.0 2 6.4 9.0 6.5 3.1 3 4.5 6.3 4.5 2.2 4 2.4 3.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jong AZ down, Den Bosch across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jong AZ at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Den Bosch away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Jong AZ, 1.44 for Den Bosch. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JON 2–2 DEN · DEN 2–3 JON · JON 0–0 DEN · DEN 6–0 JON

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

JONG AZ

LWWLDW1–2 · 2–1 · 6–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–1

DEN BOSCH

LLLWLD1–4 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7