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Jong Ajax v VVV Venlo

Jong Ajax

0–3Full time

VVV Venlo

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · Sportpark De Toekomst

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Jong Ajax 0–3 VVV Venlo VVV VENLO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VVV Venlo win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.490

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VVV Venlo win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Jong Ajax v VVV Venlo
2′Much as we predicted: VVV Venlo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
3′⚽ GOAL · 4' Jong Ajax 0–0 VVV Venlo · Edhy Zuliani
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Jong Ajax 0–1 VVV Venlo · Edhy Zuliani
5′VVV Venlo ahead on 4′ through Edhy Zuliani. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–19–64
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' VVV Venlo win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
11′We published VVV Venlo at 40%. Our model now makes it 64%. 0–1 · 16–20–64
17′We published VVV Venlo at 40%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 15–20–65
35′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 12–21–67
45′HALF-TIME Jong Ajax 0–1 VVV Venlo
45′SECOND HALF Jong Ajax 0–1 VVV Venlo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jong Ajax · On: Jahyendrow Amour · Off: Sinclair de Falco
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Jano Monserrate · Jong Ajax
57′⚽ GOAL · 58' Jong Ajax 0–1 VVV Venlo · L. Schmidt
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Jong Ajax 0–2 VVV Venlo · L. Schmidt
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' VVV Venlo · On: Mattheos Tsigkas · Off: L. Schmidt
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' VVV Venlo · On: Andreas Verstraeten · Off: Mohammed Odriss
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Jong Ajax · On: Diego Pugno · Off: emre unuvar Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Pharell Nash · Jong Ajax
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Jong Ajax 0–3 VVV Venlo · L. Schmidt
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Jong Ajax 0–3 VVV Venlo · Philip Heise
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Jong Ajax 0–3 VVV Venlo · Philip Heise
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Jong Ajax · On: Abdoulaye Camara · Off: Jinairo Johnson
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Jong Ajax · On: Jeshurun Simeon · Off: Pharell Nash
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' VVV Venlo
76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Diego Pugno · Jong Ajax
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' VVV Venlo · On: Amir rais · Off: Edhy Zuliani
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' VVV Venlo · On: Amir rais · Off: Edhy Zuliani
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' VVV Venlo · On: Luis Gorlich · Off: Tristan Schenkhuizen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Jong Ajax · On: Paulo Da Silva · Off: emre unuvar
FTFULL TIME Jong Ajax 0–3 VVV Venlo
FTJong Ajax 0–3 VVV Venlo · VVV Venlo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jong Ajax win37%

Draw23%

VVV Venlo win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Sportpark De Toekomst

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Jong Ajax

4-3-3

1 C. Setford

2 R. van de Pavert

3 G. Spina

4 M. Muzungu

5 Sinclair de Falco

6 Jinairo Johnson

10 Alejandro Monserrate

8 Mohamed Abdalla

7 Leo Salazar

9 E. Ünüvar

11 P. Nash

Coach · Carlos García

Substitutes

16 · A. Appiah

19 · A. Camara

12 · A. Hani

24 · A. Moumane

22 · D. Pugno

21 · J. Simeon

23 · P. Da Silva

17 · M. van der Lans

25 · D. van der Vaart

30 · V. van der Velde

18 · J. Amour

20 · L. Acheampong

VVV Venlo

4-2-3-1

13 Y. Schoonderwaldt

14 Raf Vullers

4 É. Clancy

33 G. Blancquart

16 P. Heise

8 Ismail Oulad M'Hand

38 Tristan Schenkhuizen

7 E. Zuliani

24 M. Odriss

11 N. Ait Mouhou

17 L. Schmidt

Coach · Marinus Dijkhuizen

Substitutes

6 · A. Verstraeten

35 · Yousri El Anbri

22 · Zidane Taylan

31 · M. Davis

1 · T. Doornbusch

21 · L. Görlich

43 · D. Hendrix

19 · Thomas Janssen

15 · Tijn Joosten

34 · A. Rais

9 · M. Tsigkas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Jong Ajax

4-3-3

1 C. Setford

2 R. van de Pavert

3 G. Spina

4 M. Muzungu

5 Sinclair de Falco

6 Jinairo Johnson

10 Alejandro Monserrate

8 Mohamed Abdalla

7 Leo Salazar

9 E. Ünüvar

11 P. Nash

Coach · Carlos García

Substitutes

16 · A. Appiah

19 · A. Camara

12 · A. Hani

24 · A. Moumane

22 · D. Pugno

21 · J. Simeon

23 · P. Da Silva

17 · M. van der Lans

25 · D. van der Vaart

30 · V. van der Velde

18 · J. Amour

20 · L. Acheampong

VVV Venlo

4-2-3-1

13 Y. Schoonderwaldt

14 Raf Vullers

4 É. Clancy

33 G. Blancquart

16 P. Heise

8 Ismail Oulad M'Hand

38 Tristan Schenkhuizen

7 E. Zuliani

24 M. Odriss

11 N. Ait Mouhou

17 L. Schmidt

Coach · Marinus Dijkhuizen

Substitutes

6 · A. Verstraeten

35 · Yousri El Anbri

22 · Zidane Taylan

31 · M. Davis

1 · T. Doornbusch

21 · L. Görlich

43 · D. Hendrix

19 · Thomas Janssen

15 · Tijn Joosten

34 · A. Rais

9 · M. Tsigkas

Our number · vvv venlo winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make VVV Venlo a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jong Ajax win	37%	33%	+4
Draw	23%	23%	0
VVV Venlo win	40%	43%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	72%	−13
Both teams to score	61%	72%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	81%	88%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	38%	53%	−16
Jong Ajax or draw	60%	57%	+3
Jong Ajax clean sheet	21%	–	–
VVV Venlo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.3 7.4 5.6 3.0 1 7.1 10.5 8.4 4.5 2 5.2 8.1 6.4 3.4 3 2.7 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jong Ajax down, VVV Venlo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jong Ajax at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). VVV Venlo away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Jong Ajax, 1.59 for VVV Venlo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VVV 0–1 JON · JON 2–4 VVV · VVV 1–0 JON · JON 0–1 VVV

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

JONG AJAX

WDWLLD3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–6 · 0–0

VVV VENLO

WLWWLW4–0 · 2–4 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7