Jong Ajax v De Graafschap prediction · Eerste Divisie

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:30

Jong Ajax 2–1 De Graafschap DE GRAAFSCHAP WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said De Graafschap win~~46%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.726

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.600

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said De Graafschap win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: De Graafschap was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 32–22–46
1′KICK-OFF Jong Ajax v De Graafschap
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Jong Ajax
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Ryan van de Pavert · Jong Ajax
43′43′: emre unuvar on the scoresheet for Jong Ajax. 0–0 · 28–33–38
44′We said De Graafschap at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Jong Ajax 1–0 De Graafschap · emre unuvar
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' De Graafschap win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Jong Ajax win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was De Graafschap win 38%)
45′Donny Warmerdam scores for De Graafschap on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–34–38
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Jong Ajax 1–1 De Graafschap · Donny Warmerdam
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' De Graafschap win: 46% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Jong Ajax 1–1 De Graafschap
45′SECOND HALF Jong Ajax 1–1 De Graafschap
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 28–35–37
55′We said De Graafschap at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 26–40–34
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Jong Ajax win 62%)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' De Graafschap · On: Bjorn van Zijl · Off: gabriele finocchiaro
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' De Graafschap · On: Julian kania · Off: Kyano Kwint
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' De Graafschap · On: Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff · Off: Levi Schoppema
65′We said De Graafschap at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–49–29
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' De Graafschap win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
72′We said De Graafschap at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Rowan Besselink · De Graafschap
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Jong Ajax · On: Anass Moumane · Off: Leo Salazar
77′We said De Graafschap at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
78′13 shots for Jong Ajax, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 14–67–18
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Jong Ajax · On: Sinclair de Falco · Off: Jahyendrow Amour
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Jong Ajax · On: Levi Acheampong · Off: Mohamed Jabou Abdalla
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' De Graafschap · On: Nart Ahmeti-Grainca · Off: Toivo Mero
80′79′: Jano Monserrate on the scoresheet for Jong Ajax, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
80′We said De Graafschap at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' De Graafschap win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Jong Ajax 2–1 De Graafschap · Jano Monserrate (assist Ryan van de Pavert)
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' De Graafschap win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Jong Ajax win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 72%)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Jong Ajax · On: Jinairo Johnson · Off: Jano Monserrate
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Jong Ajax · On: Mylo van der Lans · Off: Ryan van de Pavert
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' De Graafschap · On: Clint Leemans · Off: Mark Diemers Corrected
FTFULL TIME Jong Ajax 2–1 De Graafschap
FTJong Ajax 2–1 De Graafschap · De Graafschap win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

De Graafschap are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jong Ajax 32%, draw 22%, De Graafschap 46%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Jong Ajax v De GraafschapBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Jong Ajax win32%

Draw22%

De Graafschap win46%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark De Toekomst

Line-ups

Jong Ajax

4-3-3

De Graafschap

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jong Ajax

De Graafschap

10Days since last match10

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jong Ajax

4-3-3

1 C. Setford

2 R. van de Pavert

3 G. Spina

4 M. Muzungu

5 J. Amour

10 Alejandro Monserrate

6 T. Peters

8 Mohamed Abdalla

7 Leo Salazar

9 E. Ünüvar

11 P. Nash

Coach · Carlos García

Substitutes

16 · A. Appiah

21 · L. Acheampong

19 · A. Camara

12 · A. Hani

20 · Jinairo Johnson

24 · A. Moumane

22 · J. Simeon

23 · P. Da Silva

18 · Sinclair de Falco

17 · M. van der Lans

25 · D. van der Vaart

30 · V. van der Velde

De Graafschap

4-3-3

1 T. Wieggers

16 N. Martens

3 R. Besselink

15 T. Kok

5 L. Schoppema

10 F. de Jong

23 M. Diemers

8 D. Warmerdam

20 Gabriele Finocchiaro

40 Kyano Kwint

11 T. Mero

Coach · T. Duivenvoorden

Substitutes

2 · J. Wieckhoff

28 · J. Triep

21 · K. Symons

22 · P. Reverson

6 · C. Leemans

17 · N. Kaninda

9 · J. Kania

33 · R. Jonkers

4 · J. Hardeman

14 · Gijs Bolk

27 · N. Ahmeti-Grainca

7 · Bjorn van Zijl

Our number · de graafschap winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

46% The market40%

Us46%

~~Market~~40%

We make De Graafschap a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jong Ajax v De Graafschap~~1.48 – 1.83

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~18 v 15

~~The market · De Graafschap win~~40% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · De Graafschap win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jong Ajax win	32%	37%	−5
Draw	22%	23%	−1
De Graafschap win	46%	40%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	64%	74%	−10
Both teams to score	64%	73%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	84%	89%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	42%	55%	−13
Jong Ajax or draw	54%	60%	−6
Jong Ajax clean sheet	16%	–	–
De Graafschap clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.5 7.0 6.1 3.7 1 5.8 9.5 8.9 5.4 2.5 2 4.0 7.2 6.6 4.0 3 2.0 3.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jong Ajax down, De Graafschap across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,019 Eerste Divisie matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.4% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jong Ajax at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). De Graafschap away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Jong Ajax, 1.83 for De Graafschap. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEG 4–0 JON · JON 2–2 DEG · DEG 2–0 JON · JON 2–0 DEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 31 Aug

JONG AJAX

DWLLDL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–6 · 0–0 · 0–3

DE GRAAFSCHAP

LWLWDW0–5 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	11	+23	28
2	Almere City FC	11	+14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	+12	22
4	Emmen	11	+5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	+3	20
6	Vitesse	11	+1	17
7	Roda	10	+2	16
8	FC Volendam	11	+5	16
9	MVV	11	−11	16
10	Waalwijk	11	+4	15
11	Jong AZ	11	+4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	−3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
14	FC OSS	11	−1	12
15	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	−8	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	−5	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7