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Heracles v Waalwijk

Heracles

3–0Full time

Waalwijk

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · Polman Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Heracles 3–0 Waalwijk HERACLES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heracles win~~63%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.207

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.193

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Heracles win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Heracles 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–18–19
1′KICK-OFF Heracles v Waalwijk
2′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Waalwijk
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Sem Scheperman · Heracles
29′8.0 shots for Heracles, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 56–24–20
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Heracles win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Liam Van Gelderen · Waalwijk
45′SECOND HALF Heracles 0–0 Waalwijk
50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Heracles 0–0 Waalwijk · Tristan Van Gilst
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Heracles 1–0 Waalwijk · Tristan Van Gilst
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Heracles · On: David Tomic · Off: Tristan Van Gilst
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Loek Postma · Waalwijk
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Heracles 1–0 Waalwijk · Damon Mirani
66′⚽ GOAL · 68' Heracles 1–0 Waalwijk · Manny Rodriguez Baldera
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Heracles 2–0 Waalwijk · Manny Rodriguez Baldera
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Heracles 3–0 Waalwijk · Manny Rodriguez Baldera
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Waalwijk · On: Azzedine Dkidak · Off: Virgil Misidjan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Heracles · On: Thomas Bruns · Off: Chafik Abbas
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Heracles · On: Mike te Wierik · Off: Mimeirhel Benita
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Heracles · On: Mario Borac · Off: Sem Scheperman
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Waalwijk · On: Finn Stokkers · Off: Jesse van de Haar
86′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Waalwijk · On: R. van Hedel · Off: Tim van de Loo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Heracles · On: Jeff Reine-Adélaïde · Off: Manny Rodriguez Baldera
FTFULL TIME Heracles 3–0 Waalwijk
FTHeracles 3–0 Waalwijk · Heracles win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Heracles win63%

Draw18%

Waalwijk win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Polman Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Heracles

4-2-3-1

1 F. de Keijzer

2 M. Benita

4 D. Mirani

14 M. Wrusch

25 Manny

5 D. van der Kust

32 S. Scheperman

7 C. Abbas

17 T. van Gilst

18 M. Hauswirth

27 J. N'djoli

Coach · V. Heilmann

Substitutes

6 · D. Tomić

23 · M. te Wierik

26 · D. van Kaam

30 · D. van Oorschot

10 · T. Bruns

3 · Mario Borac

35 · S. Bultman

8 · M. Engels

16 · T. Jansink

9 · V. Poppler

11 · J. Reine-Adélaïde

33 · L. Zeevalkink

Waalwijk

4-2-3-1

1 N. Schiks

33 F. Al Mazyani

30 J. de Wijs

4 L. van Gelderen

55 N. Held

8 J. Nap

6 L. Postma

7 R. Fage

22 T. van de Loo

93 V. Misidjan

9 J. van de Haar

Coach · Sander Duits

Substitutes

13 · Xander Mulder

25 · N. Bakboord

24 · A. Dkidak

42 · B. Kemmeren

20 · Keyan Varela

16 · M. Spenkelink

27 · F. Stokkers

19 · H. van Gemert

18 · R. van Hedel

3 · S. van der Plas

11 · Yorem van der Veen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Heracles

4-2-3-1

1 F. de Keijzer

2 M. Benita

4 D. Mirani

14 M. Wrusch

25 Manny

5 D. van der Kust

32 S. Scheperman

7 C. Abbas

17 T. van Gilst

18 M. Hauswirth

27 J. N'djoli

Coach · V. Heilmann

Substitutes

6 · D. Tomić

23 · M. te Wierik

26 · D. van Kaam

30 · D. van Oorschot

10 · T. Bruns

3 · Mario Borac

35 · S. Bultman

8 · M. Engels

16 · T. Jansink

9 · V. Poppler

11 · J. Reine-Adélaïde

33 · L. Zeevalkink

Waalwijk

4-2-3-1

1 N. Schiks

33 F. Al Mazyani

30 J. de Wijs

4 L. van Gelderen

55 N. Held

8 J. Nap

6 L. Postma

7 R. Fage

22 T. van de Loo

93 V. Misidjan

9 J. van de Haar

Coach · Sander Duits

Substitutes

13 · Xander Mulder

25 · N. Bakboord

24 · A. Dkidak

42 · B. Kemmeren

20 · Keyan Varela

16 · M. Spenkelink

27 · F. Stokkers

19 · H. van Gemert

18 · R. van Hedel

3 · S. van der Plas

11 · Yorem van der Veen

Our number · heracles winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

63% The market64%

Us63%

~~Market~~64%

We make Heracles a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · heracles win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heracles win	63%	64%	−1
Draw	18%	20%	−2
Waalwijk win	20%	16%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	74%	67%	+7
Both teams to score	68%	62%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	90%	85%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	55%	47%	+8
Heracles or draw	80%	84%	−4
Heracles clean sheet	26%	–	–
Waalwijk clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.0 1 5.4 6.8 4.8 2.2 2 6.5 8.6 5.9 2.7 3 5.5 7.2 4.9 2.3 4 3.5 4.6 3.1 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Heracles down, Waalwijk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Heracles at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Waalwijk away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Heracles, 1.37 for Waalwijk. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

HERACLES

WWWLWD3–1 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2

WAALWIJK

DWWWLD2–2 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 6–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7