Helmond Sport v NAC Breda prediction · Eerste Divisie

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Helmond Sport 0–2 NAC Breda NAC BREDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NAC Breda win~~41%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.536

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.234

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NAC Breda win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: NAC Breda 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–24–40
1′KICK-OFF Helmond Sport v NAC Breda
40′Charles-Andreas Brym scores for NAC Breda on 39′. 0–0 · 32–33–35
41′We said NAC Breda at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 10–21–68
41′⚽ GOAL · 39' Helmond Sport 0–1 NAC Breda · Charles-Andreas Brym (assist Moussa Soumano)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' NAC Breda win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
45′HALF-TIME Helmond Sport 0–1 NAC Breda
45′SECOND HALF Helmond Sport 0–1 NAC Breda
46′We said NAC Breda at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' NAC Breda win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
56′55′: Moussa Soumano on the scoresheet for NAC Breda. 0–1 · 7–21–72
56′We said NAC Breda at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Helmond Sport 0–2 NAC Breda · Moussa Soumano (penalty)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' NAC Breda win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
57′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–93
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Helmond Sport · On: Mauro Lenaerts · Off: Dean·Huiberts
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Helmond Sport · On: Lovro Golic · Off: Flor Van Den Eynden
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Helmond Sport · On: Joep van der Sluijs · Off: Kiton Ekoli
62′We said NAC Breda at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Michel Simon Ludwig · Helmond Sport
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Boyd Lucassen · NAC Breda
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Helmond Sport · On: Tijn Landheer · Off: Thomas Poll
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Helmond Sport · On: Labinot Bajrami · Off: Livio Cicero
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Rio·Hillen · NAC Breda
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' NAC Breda · On: Paul Gladon · Off: Moussa Soumano
84′We said NAC Breda at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' NAC Breda · On: Karim Mperanyi · Off: Maximilien Balard
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' NAC Breda · On: Imran Nazih · Off: Mohamed Nassoh
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' NAC Breda · On: Brahim Ghalidi · Off: Charles-Andreas Brym
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' NAC Breda · On: Mylan Brouwers · Off: Jan Van den Bergh
FTFULL TIME Helmond Sport 0–2 NAC Breda
FTHelmond Sport 0–2 NAC Breda · NAC Breda win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NAC Breda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Helmond Sport 36%, draw 23%, NAC Breda 41%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Helmond Sport v NAC BredaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Helmond Sport win36%

Draw23%

NAC Breda win41%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueLavans Stadion

Line-ups

Helmond Sport

4-2-3-1

NAC Breda

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Helmond Sport

NAC Breda

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	NAC Breda	10	+1	17
17	Helmond Sport	10	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Helmond Sport

4-2-3-1

1 M. Bergsen

20 S. Dekkers

3 F. Van Den Eynden

4 B. Koglin

5 T. Poll

6 M. Ludwig

44 Xander van der Velde

30 K. Ekoli

10 D. Huiberts

34 T. Essakkati

11 L. Cicero

Coach · Frédéric Frans

Substitutes

2 · R. van Bree

21 · Wessel van der Heijden

7 · J. van der Sluijs

26 · Alto Gjoka

9 · L. Bajrami

23 · A. El Maach

47 · Dayen Geerts

14 · Lovro Golič

43 · T. Landheer

35 · N. Meissner

94 · Mauro Lenaerts

NAC Breda

4-2-3-1

1 M. Verrips

2 B. Lucassen

4 L. Greiml

22 R. Hillen

12 J. Van den Bergh

6 M. Balard

10 M. Nassoh

14 K. Sowah

78 J. Van Hecke

28 C. Brym

9 M. Soumano

Coach · R. Kruijs

Substitutes

19 · P. Gladon

5 · J. Candelaria

35 · M. Brouwers

17 · M. Bouchouari

23 · R. Kortsmit

31 · K. Lamprou

27 · Karim Mperanyi

34 · I. Nazih

8 · F. Oldrup Jensen

11 · G. Misehouy

26 · P. Reulen

55 · B. Ghalidi

Our number · nac breda winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

41% The market61%

Us41%

~~Market~~61%

We make NAC Breda a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Helmond Sport v NAC Breda~~1.53 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~17 v 5

~~The market · NAC Breda win~~61% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NAC Breda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Helmond Sport win	36%	19%	+17
Draw	23%	21%	+2
NAC Breda win	41%	61%	−20
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Both teams to score	62%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Helmond Sport or draw	59%	39%	+20
Helmond Sport clean sheet	20%	–	–
NAC Breda clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.1 7.4 5.7 3.1 1 6.9 10.2 8.5 4.6 2 5.0 7.9 6.4 3.5 3 2.6 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Helmond Sport down, NAC Breda across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,012 Eerste Divisie matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Helmond Sport at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). NAC Breda away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Helmond Sport, 1.63 for NAC Breda. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HEL 1–0 NAC · NAC 1–1 HEL · HEL 2–2 NAC · NAC 1–0 HEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept

HELMOND SPORT

WWLLDL4–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–3

NAC BREDA

LLWWDW2–4 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	10	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	+15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	+12	21
4	Emmen	10	+4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	+1	17
6	Roda	10	+2	16
7	MVV	10	−7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	+5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	+4	14
10	Vitesse	10	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	+4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
13	FC OSS	10	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	−4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	−7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	−3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7