Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven prediction · Eerste Divisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Helmond SportDrawFC Eindhoven

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Helmond Sport 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Helmond Sport are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Helmond Sport 44%, draw 23%, FC Eindhoven 32%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Helmond Sport v FC EindhovenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Helmond Sport win44%

Draw23%

FC Eindhoven win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueGS Staalwerken Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Helmond Sport

FC Eindhoven

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	FC Eindhoven	12	−9	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · helmond sport winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

44% The market45%

Us44%

~~Market~~45%

We make Helmond Sport a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven~~1.62 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 18 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~19 v 17

~~The market · Helmond Sport win~~45% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Helmond Sport win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Helmond Sport win	44%	45%	−1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
FC Eindhoven win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Helmond Sport or draw	68%	70%	−2
Helmond Sport clean sheet	26%	–	–
FC Eindhoven clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 7.3 4.7 2.1 1 8.6 10.8 7.5 3.4 2 6.7 8.9 6.0 2.7 3 3.7 4.9 3.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Helmond Sport down, FC Eindhoven across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,032 Eerste Divisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Helmond Sport at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Eindhoven away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Helmond Sport, 1.35 for FC Eindhoven. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCE 1–0 HEL · HEL 1–0 FCE · FCE 2–2 HEL · HEL 3–4 FCE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 18 Sept

HELMOND SPORT

LLDLLL1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–5

FC EINDHOVEN

WLDLLL3–1 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	12	+23	29
2	VVV Venlo	12	+14	25
3	Emmen	12	+7	25
4	Almere City FC	12	+13	22
5	Roda	12	+4	22
6	NAC Breda	12	+3	21
7	FC Volendam	12	+9	19
8	Jong AZ	12	+5	17
9	Vitesse	12	−1	17
10	MVV	12	−11	17
11	Waalwijk	12	+4	16
12	Jong PSV U21	12	−2	16
13	Den Bosch	12	−3	15
14	FC OSS	12	−1	13
15	Jong Ajax	12	−11	12
16	De Graafschap	12	−11	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	−9	11
18	Dordrecht	12	−15	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	−6	9
20	Jong Utrecht	12	−12	7