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FC Volendam v Vitesse

FC Volendam

2–0Full time

Vitesse

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · Kras Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

FC Volendam 2–0 Vitesse FC VOLENDAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Volendam win~~57%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.283

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.559

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Volendam win at 57%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Volendam v Vitesse
2′Much as we predicted: FC Volendam was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–20–23
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Steffen · Vitesse
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Pontus Dahbo · Vitesse
30′7.0 shots for Vitesse, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 50–26–24
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Solomon Bonnah · Vitesse
41′Vitesse have had 8.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 47–30–23
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' FC Volendam win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' FC Volendam 1–0 Vitesse
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' FC Volendam 1–0 Vitesse · Luca Blondeau
45′SECOND HALF FC Volendam 1–0 Vitesse
46′HALF-TIME FC Volendam 1–0 Vitesse
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Volendam · On: Precious ugwu · Off: Daan Huisman Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Vitesse · On: Nino Zonneveld · Off: Filipe de Carvalho Ferreira
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' FC Volendam 2–0 Vitesse · Luca Blondeau
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' FC Volendam 2–0 Vitesse · Henk Veerman
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vitesse · On: Eduard·Probst · Off: Pontus Dahbo
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' FC Volendam 3–0 Vitesse · Henk Veerman
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Vitesse · On: Alexander Büttner · Off: Youssef Ouallil
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Precious ugwu · FC Volendam
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vitesse · On: Koen Te Veluwe · Off: Xiamaro thenu
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Vitesse · On: Yuval ranon · Off: Solomon Bonnah
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Mike Kleijn · FC Volendam
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' FC Volendam · On: Mohammed Belfqih · Off: Y. Jaber el Maftahi
89′SUBSTITUTION · 90' FC Volendam · On: Frederik Ihler · Off: Henk Veerman
FTFULL TIME FC Volendam 2–0 Vitesse
FTFC Volendam 2–0 Vitesse · FC Volendam win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Volendam win57%

Draw19%

Vitesse win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Kras Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Volendam

4-3-3

1 H. Jurjus

18 N. Bukala

25 Luca Blondeau

3 M. Amevor

15 M. Kleijn

8 D. Huisman

10 R. Niemeijer

6 A. Plat

7 N. Doodeman

9 H. Veerman

21 Y. el Maftahi

Coach · E. van de Looi

Substitutes

5 · Dean Bisschops

34 · M. Belfqih

67 · F. Ihler

63 · J. Haakmat

17 · Miguel Opoku Agyemang

12 · D. Payne

11 · Kayden Wolff

16 · R. Steur

29 · Jesper Tielemans

2 · P. Ugwu

22 · D. Vlak

46 · M. van der Horst

Vitesse

4-2-3-1

1 C. van den Berg

2 S. Bonnah

17 V. Zumberi

55 M. Steffen

22 Xiamaro Thenu

6 M. Schikora

34 Y. Ouallil

20 F. de Carvalho

16 P. Dahbo

21 A. Sellouf

9 N. Bannis

Coach · R. Rehm

Substitutes

42 · Teun Bosch

31 · M. Brull

28 · A. Büttner

33 · M. Marschalk

13 · J. Pinto

27 · E. Probst

11 · Yuval Ranon

23 · Jayden Siecker

7 · Nino Zonneveld

38 · Koen te Veluwe

46 · H. van der Mast

14 · O. Achouitar

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Volendam

4-3-3

1 H. Jurjus

18 N. Bukala

25 Luca Blondeau

3 M. Amevor

15 M. Kleijn

8 D. Huisman

10 R. Niemeijer

6 A. Plat

7 N. Doodeman

9 H. Veerman

21 Y. el Maftahi

Coach · E. van de Looi

Substitutes

5 · Dean Bisschops

34 · M. Belfqih

67 · F. Ihler

63 · J. Haakmat

17 · Miguel Opoku Agyemang

12 · D. Payne

11 · Kayden Wolff

16 · R. Steur

29 · Jesper Tielemans

2 · P. Ugwu

22 · D. Vlak

46 · M. van der Horst

Vitesse

4-2-3-1

1 C. van den Berg

2 S. Bonnah

17 V. Zumberi

55 M. Steffen

22 Xiamaro Thenu

6 M. Schikora

34 Y. Ouallil

20 F. de Carvalho

16 P. Dahbo

21 A. Sellouf

9 N. Bannis

Coach · R. Rehm

Substitutes

42 · Teun Bosch

31 · M. Brull

28 · A. Büttner

33 · M. Marschalk

13 · J. Pinto

27 · E. Probst

11 · Yuval Ranon

23 · Jayden Siecker

7 · Nino Zonneveld

38 · Koen te Veluwe

46 · H. van der Mast

14 · O. Achouitar

Our number · fc volendam winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

57% The market39%

Us57%

~~Market~~39%

We make FC Volendam a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc volendam win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Volendam win	57%	39%	+17
Draw	19%	24%	−4
Vitesse win	24%	37%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	71%	69%	+1
Both teams to score	67%	70%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
FC Volendam or draw	76%	63%	+13
FC Volendam clean sheet	25%	–	–
Vitesse clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.4 3.9 2.6 1 6.0 7.9 5.7 2.7 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.9 6.7 4.8 2.3 4 2.8 3.9 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Volendam down, Vitesse across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Volendam at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vitesse away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for FC Volendam, 1.42 for Vitesse. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCV 4–0 VIT · VIT 1–2 FCV

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

FC VOLENDAM

WLWLWL6–1 · 3–5 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–1

VITESSE

WWLWLD4–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7