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FC Volendam v Jong Utrecht

FC Volendam
6–2Full time
Jong Utrecht

Eerste Divisie · FRI 23 OCT · Kras Stadion

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33
FC Volendam 6–2 Jong Utrecht FC VOLENDAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Volendam win71%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.127
The market’s Brier score0.289

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Volendam win at 71%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Volendam 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–16–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Volendam v Jong Utrecht
  4. 17′We said FC Volendam at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–1 · 43–24–33
  5. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' FC Volendam 0–1 Jong Utrecht
  6. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' FC Volendam win: 71% at kick-off, 43% now
  7. 18′A goal for Jong Utrecht on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 43–24–34
  8. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' FC Volendam win: 71% at kick-off, 41% now
  9. 25′We said FC Volendam at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–25–36
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 0–1 · 37–26–37
  11. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' FC Volendam 1–1 Jong Utrecht
  12. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' FC Volendam win: 71% at kick-off, 62% now
  13. 34′32′: Henk Veerman on the scoresheet for FC Volendam, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 61–24–15
  14. 39′We said FC Volendam at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–26–15
  15. 39′We said FC Volendam at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–11–4
  16. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' FC Volendam 2–1 Jong Utrecht
  17. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' FC Volendam win: 71% at kick-off, 85% now
  18. 41′FC Volendam ahead on 39′ through Henk Veerman. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–12–4
  19. 42′We said FC Volendam at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–1
  20. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' FC Volendam 3–1 Jong Utrecht
  21. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' FC Volendam win: 71% at kick-off, 96% now
  22. 43′Henk Veerman scores for FC Volendam on 41′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–1
  23. 44′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–3–1
  24. 45′HALF-TIME FC Volendam 3–1 Jong Utrecht
  25. 45′SECOND HALF FC Volendam 3–1 Jong Utrecht
  26. 46′5 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 85–12–3
  27. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jong Utrecht · On: Driss Laaouina · Off: Jaygo van Ommeren
  28. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' FC Volendam 3–2 Jong Utrecht
  29. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' FC Volendam win: 71% at kick-off, 85% now
  30. 47′46′: Massien Ghaddari on the scoresheet for Jong Utrecht, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 85–12–3
  31. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Precious ugwu · FC Volendam
  32. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Volendam · On: Frederik Ihler · Off: Henk Veerman
  33. 52′14 shots for Jong Utrecht, 9 the other way, and they still trail 3–2. 3–2 · 85–12–3
  34. 53′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 97–3–0
  35. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' FC Volendam 4–2 Jong Utrecht
  36. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' FC Volendam win: 71% at kick-off, 97% now
  37. 55′FC Volendam ahead on 53′ through Frederik Ihler. 4–2. 4–2 · 97–2–0
  38. 57′16 shots for Jong Utrecht, 11 the other way, and they still trail 4–2. 4–2 · 97–2–0
  39. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Volendam · On: Deron Payne · Off: Nordin Bukala
  40. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Volendam · On: Roy Steur · Off: Hidde Jurjus
  41. 65′20 shots for Jong Utrecht, 11 the other way, and they still trail 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
  42. 66′We said FC Volendam at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  43. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' FC Volendam 5–2 Jong Utrecht
  44. 67′7 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  45. 68′Frederik Ihler scores for FC Volendam on 66′ — 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  46. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Jong Utrecht · On: tijn boggende den · Off: Jamie Schuldes
  47. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Jong Utrecht · On: Richie Omorowa · Off: Ferdinand Pohl
  48. 77′24 shots for Jong Utrecht, 14 the other way, and they still trail 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  49. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Jong Utrecht · On: Kenji Goes · Off: Emmanuel Chigozie Owen
  50. 80′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 6–2 · 100–0–0
  51. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Volendam · On: D. Bisschops · Off: Precious ugwu
  52. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' FC Volendam 6–2 Jong Utrecht
  53. 81′80′: Y. Jaber el Maftahi on the scoresheet for FC Volendam, making it 6–2. 6–2 · 100–0–0
  54. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Volendam · On: Kayden Wolff · Off: Y. Jaber el Maftahi
  55. FTFULL TIME FC Volendam 6–2 Jong Utrecht
  56. FTFC Volendam 6–2 Jong Utrecht · FC Volendam win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Volendam are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Volendam 71%, draw 15%, Jong Utrecht 14%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on FC Volendam v Jong UtrechtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Volendam win71%
Draw15%
Jong Utrecht win14%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKras Stadion

Line-ups

FC Volendam

4-3-3

Jong Utrecht

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Volendam

Jong Utrecht

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

Last match: 19 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · Regular season

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8FC Volendam11+516
20Jong Utrecht11−87

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Volendam

4-3-3

1 H. Jurjus

18 N. Bukala

25 Luca Blondeau

3 M. Amevor

2 P. Ugwu

8 D. Huisman

10 R. Niemeijer

6 A. Plat

7 N. Doodeman

9 H. Veerman

21 Y. el Maftahi

Coach · E. van de Looi

Substitutes

17 · Miguel Opoku Agyemang

34 · M. Belfqih

5 · Dean Bisschops

67 · F. Ihler

63 · J. Haakmat

12 · D. Payne

11 · Kayden Wolff

16 · R. Steur

29 · Jesper Tielemans

22 · D. Vlak

46 · M. van der Horst

Jong Utrecht

4-2-3-1

1 K. Gadellaa

2 Yousri Sbai

3 J. Schuldes

6 W. Kooy

5 Viggo Plantinga

8 J. van Ommeren

14 F. Pohl

9 E. C. Owen

11 Massien Ghaddari

7 Bjorn Menzo

10 N. Dundas

Coach · Omar Rziki

Substitutes

13 · A. Aslani

12 · Noël Beulens

31 · Justin Eversen

16 · Kenji Goes

15 · Matyas Havelka

18 · D. Laaouina

19 · R. Omorowa

21 · L. Rietveld

32 · M. Tsankov

20 · Tijn den Boggende

Our number · fc volendam winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
71% The market56%
Us71%
Market56%

We make FC Volendam a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Volendam v Jong Utrecht2.69 – 1.09
Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 7 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 16 v 78 v 20
The market · FC Volendam win56% · ours 71%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:44
Our probability · FC Volendam win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Volendam win71%56%+15
Draw15%22%−7
Jong Utrecht win14%22%−8
Over 2.5 goals72%67%+5
Both teams to score61%65%−4
Over 1.5 goals88%85%+3
Over 3.5 goals52%47%+5
FC Volendam or draw86%78%+8
FC Volendam clean sheet34%––
Jong Utrecht clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%
0123450 2.2 2.8 1 6.5 6.5 3.7 2 8.2 8.8 4.8 3 7.3 7.8 4.2 4 4.9 5.3 2.9 5 2.7 2.9
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Volendam down, Jong Utrecht across0–5 goals a side shown (93.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsJON 2–3 FCV · FCV 2–0 JON · FCV 2–0 JON · JON 0–1 FCV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 7 Sept

FC VOLENDAM

WLWLWD2–0 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

JONG UTRECHT

DWWLLL0–0 · 3–2 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · Regular season
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Heracles11+2328
2Almere City FC11+1422
3VVV Venlo11+1222
4Emmen11+522
5NAC Breda11+320
6Roda11+319
7Vitesse11+117
8FC Volendam11+516
9MVV11−1116
10Waalwijk11+415
11Jong AZ11+414
12Den Bosch11−314
13Jong PSV U2111−313
14FC OSS11−112
15FC Eindhoven11−811
16Jong Ajax11−1111
17De Graafschap11−1111
18Dordrecht11−1311
19Helmond Sport11−59
20Jong Utrecht11−87

The competition's standings before kick-off.