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FC OSS v Helmond Sport

FC OSS

3–1Full time

Helmond Sport

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · Frans Heesen Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

FC OSS 3–1 Helmond Sport FC OSS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC OSS win~~43%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.494

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.494

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC OSS win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF FC OSS v Helmond Sport
2′Little has changed for our model: FC OSS 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–31
21′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Sem Dekkers · Helmond Sport
24′⚽ GOAL · 25' FC OSS 0–0 Helmond Sport · Mauresmo Hinoke
25′FC OSS ahead on 25′ through Mauresmo Hinoke. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–10
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' FC OSS 1–0 Helmond Sport · Mauresmo Hinoke
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' FC OSS win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
30′We said FC OSS at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
32′⚽ GOAL · 33' FC OSS 1–1 Helmond Sport · Michel Simon Ludwig
36′Michel Simon Ludwig scores for Helmond Sport on 33′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–35–28
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' FC OSS win: 43% at kick-off, 36% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC OSS 1–1 Helmond Sport · Mauresmo Hinoke
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC OSS 2–1 Helmond Sport · Mauresmo Hinoke
40′37′ and it is 2–1: Mauresmo Hinoke on the scoresheet for FC OSS. 2–1 · 72–20–8
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' FC OSS win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
45′SECOND HALF FC OSS 2–1 Helmond Sport
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Helmond Sport · On: Kiton Ekoli · Off: Mauro Lenaerts
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' K. Lubrano · FC OSS
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Xander van der Velde · Helmond Sport
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC OSS · On: Maurilio de Lannoy · Off: K. Lubrano
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Helmond Sport · On: Flor Van Den Eynden · Off: Labinot Bajrami
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Helmond Sport · On: Dean·Huiberts · Off: Helgi Fróði Ingason
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Richard van der Venne · FC OSS
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC OSS · On: Jafar Bynoe · Off: Justin Mathieu
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC OSS · On: Andy Visser · Off: Franslyn Nsingi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC OSS · On: Lars Mol · Off: Mauresmo Hinoke
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' FC OSS 3–1 Helmond Sport · Mauresmo Hinoke
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC OSS · On: Quint Jansen · Off: Richard van der Venne
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' FC OSS 3–1 Helmond Sport · Mauresmo Hinoke
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' FC OSS 3–1 Helmond Sport · Maurilio de Lannoy (assist Delano Vianello)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Helmond Sport · On: Lovro Golic · Off: Michel Simon Ludwig
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Helmond Sport · On: Nico Meissner · Off: Tijn Landheer
FTFULL TIME FC OSS 3–1 Helmond Sport
FTFC OSS 3–1 Helmond Sport · FC OSS win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC OSS win43%

Draw25%

Helmond Sport win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Frans Heesen Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC OSS

4-3-3

1 M. Havekotte

2 I. Pata

3 L. Miguel

23 D. Vianello

26 Julian Kuijpers

10 R. van der Venne

8 M. Esajas

11 J. Mathieu

18 K. Lubrano

19 F. Nsingi

17 M. Hinoke

Coach · S. Ultee

Substitutes

24 · Jay Kuiper

25 · J. Pansa

16 · D. Remie

9 · Andy Visser

33 · L. Zonneveld

27 · M. de Lannoy

5 · Jafar Howard Bynoe

21 · Thomas Cox

12 · A. Henry

6 · M. Horemans

4 · Q. Jansen

28 · L. Mol

Helmond Sport

4-4-2

1 M. Bergsen

20 S. Dekkers

4 B. Koglin

43 T. Landheer

5 T. Poll

11 L. Cicero

6 M. Ludwig

44 Xander van der Velde

19 H. Ingason

9 L. Bajrami

94 Mauro Lenaerts

Coach · Frédéric Frans

Substitutes

21 · Wessel van der Heijden

2 · R. van Bree

3 · F. Van Den Eynden

31 · N. Meissner

10 · D. Huiberts

14 · Lovro Golič

47 · Dayen Geerts

23 · A. El Maach

30 · K. Ekoli

22 · A. Dizdarević

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC OSS

4-3-3

1 M. Havekotte

2 I. Pata

3 L. Miguel

23 D. Vianello

26 Julian Kuijpers

10 R. van der Venne

8 M. Esajas

11 J. Mathieu

18 K. Lubrano

19 F. Nsingi

17 M. Hinoke

Coach · S. Ultee

Substitutes

24 · Jay Kuiper

25 · J. Pansa

16 · D. Remie

9 · Andy Visser

33 · L. Zonneveld

27 · M. de Lannoy

5 · Jafar Howard Bynoe

21 · Thomas Cox

12 · A. Henry

6 · M. Horemans

4 · Q. Jansen

28 · L. Mol

Helmond Sport

4-4-2

1 M. Bergsen

20 S. Dekkers

4 B. Koglin

43 T. Landheer

5 T. Poll

11 L. Cicero

6 M. Ludwig

44 Xander van der Velde

19 H. Ingason

9 L. Bajrami

94 Mauro Lenaerts

Coach · Frédéric Frans

Substitutes

21 · Wessel van der Heijden

2 · R. van Bree

3 · F. Van Den Eynden

31 · N. Meissner

10 · D. Huiberts

14 · Lovro Golič

47 · Dayen Geerts

23 · A. El Maach

30 · K. Ekoli

22 · A. Dizdarević

Our number · fc oss winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make FC OSS a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc oss win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC OSS win	43%	43%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Helmond Sport win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	59%	−10
Both teams to score	53%	62%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	74%	81%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	27%	39%	−12
FC OSS or draw	68%	69%	−1
FC OSS clean sheet	30%	–	–
Helmond Sport clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.0 8.9 5.2 2.1 1 10.6 11.9 7.3 3.0 2 7.4 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC OSS down, Helmond Sport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC OSS at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Helmond Sport away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for FC OSS, 1.20 for Helmond Sport. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HEL 1–1 FCO · FCO 0–3 HEL · FCO 1–1 HEL · HEL 1–0 FCO

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

FC OSS

WLLWLW2–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–1

HELMOND SPORT

LWWLLD2–3 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7