FC Eindhoven v Vitesse prediction · Eerste Divisie

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

FC Eindhoven 0–1 Vitesse VITESSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vitesse win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.448

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vitesse win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Eindhoven v Vitesse
2′Much as we predicted: Vitesse was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
39′We published Vitesse at 40%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 11–21–67
39′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–67
39′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Junior Poortvliet · FC Eindhoven
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' FC Eindhoven 0–1 Vitesse
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Vitesse win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
40′Much as we predicted: Vitesse was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 33–33–34 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
40′Vitesse ahead on 39′ through Naoufal Bannis. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–67
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Pontus Dahbo · Vitesse
45′SECOND HALF FC Eindhoven 0–1 Vitesse
48′Vitesse ahead on 38′ through Naoufal Bannis. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–69
48′HALF-TIME FC Eindhoven 0–1 Vitesse
49′We published Vitesse at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Vitesse win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' valon zumberi · Vitesse
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Clint Essers · FC Eindhoven
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Vitesse · On: Alexander Büttner · Off: Youssef Ouallil
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Vitesse · On: Mathijs Marschalk · Off: Marco Schikora Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Vitesse · On: Koen Te Veluwe · Off: Pontus Dahbo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Eindhoven · On: Luc Netten · Off: Junior Poortvliet
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Eindhoven · On: Hugo Deenen · Off: Vicente Besuijen
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Vitesse · On: Mathijs Marschalk · Off: Filipe de Carvalho Ferreira
64′We published Vitesse at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
72′We published Vitesse at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Vitesse win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Luc Netten · FC Eindhoven
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Vitesse · On: Luuk Wouters · Off: Xiamaro thenu
78′We published Vitesse at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Eindhoven · On: Niek Munsters · Off: Guus Beaumont
83′We published Vitesse at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Vitesse win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Naoufal Bannis · Vitesse
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Owen Renfrum · FC Eindhoven
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vitesse · On: Eduard·Probst · Off: Naoufal Bannis
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Eindhoven · On: Lasse Abildgaard · Off: Clint Essers
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Eindhoven · On: Lennon Smulders · Off: Xander Blomme
90′We published Vitesse at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
94′Full time, 0–1. We called Vitesse at 40% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME FC Eindhoven 0–1 Vitesse
FTFC Eindhoven 0–1 Vitesse · Vitesse win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vitesse just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Eindhoven 37%, draw 23%, Vitesse 40%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on FC Eindhoven v VitesseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

FC Eindhoven win37%

Draw23%

Vitesse win40%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueJan Louwers Stadion

Line-ups

FC Eindhoven

4-4-2

Vitesse

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Eindhoven

Vitesse

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Vitesse	10	0	14
15	FC Eindhoven	10	−7	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Eindhoven

4-4-2

1 J. Borgmans

22 C. Essers

44 O. Renfrum

4 Predrag Jevtić

20 Raf van de Riet

28 R. Buifrahi

6 G. Beaumont

8 X. Blomme

77 V. Besuijen

18 Antonio Baždarić

19 Kevin Ferreira

Coach · Jan Poortvliet

Substitutes

27 · E. Eksi

35 · J. Elbers

30 · N. Fancito

31 · N. Janssen

14 · N. Munsters

10 · Lasse Abildgaard

17 · L. Netten

25 · Lennon Smulders

7 · H. Deenen

23 · Gideon Constancia

5 · R. Boon

Vitesse

4-2-3-1

1 C. van den Berg

2 S. Bonnah

55 M. Steffen

17 V. Zumberi

22 Xiamaro Thenu

6 M. Schikora

34 Y. Ouallil

20 F. de Carvalho

16 P. Dahbo

21 A. Sellouf

9 N. Bannis

Coach · R. Rehm

Substitutes

14 · O. Achouitar

25 · T. Bodak

42 · Teun Bosch

31 · M. Brull

28 · A. Büttner

24 · N. Markelo

33 · M. Marschalk

27 · E. Probst

11 · Yuval Ranon

15 · L. Wouters

7 · Nino Zonneveld

38 · Koen te Veluwe

Our number · vitesse winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Vitesse a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Eindhoven v Vitesse~~1.56 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~15 v 10

~~The market · Vitesse win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vitesse win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Eindhoven win	37%	30%	+7
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Vitesse win	40%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	62%	64%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
FC Eindhoven or draw	60%	55%	+5
FC Eindhoven clean sheet	20%	–	–
Vitesse clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.0 7.1 5.5 3.0 1 6.9 10.2 8.4 4.5 2 5.1 8.1 6.5 3.5 3 2.7 4.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Eindhoven down, Vitesse across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,012 Eerste Divisie matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Eindhoven at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vitesse away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for FC Eindhoven, 1.62 for Vitesse. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VIT 1–1 FCE · FCE 0–4 VIT · FCE 3–3 VIT · VIT 1–1 FCE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept

FC EINDHOVEN

DWWLDL0–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 0–3

VITESSE

WLWLDL2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	10	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	+15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	+12	21
4	Emmen	10	+4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	+1	17
6	Roda	10	+2	16
7	MVV	10	−7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	+5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	+4	14
10	Vitesse	10	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	+4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
13	FC OSS	10	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	−4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	−7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	−3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7