Emmen v Almere City FC prediction · Eerste Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Emmen 2–1 Almere City FC ALMERE CITY FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almere City FC win~~43%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.660

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.488

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almere City FC win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Almere City FC 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 35–22–43
2′KICK-OFF Emmen v Almere City FC
7′We said Almere City FC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 57–21–22
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Emmen 1–0 Almere City FC
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Almere City FC win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Emmen win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Almere City FC win 22%)
8′Emmen find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 57–21–22
21′We said Almere City FC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
25′We said Almere City FC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–0 · 82–12–7
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Emmen 2–0 Almere City FC
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Almere City FC win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
27′Jack Cooper Love scores for Emmen on 25′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 82–12–6
30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Joey Jacobs · Almere City FC
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Emanuel Poku · Almere City FC
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Jack Cooper Love · Emmen
39′We said Almere City FC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 86–10–4
45′SECOND HALF Emmen 2–0 Almere City FC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Almere City FC win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
46′HALF-TIME Emmen 2–0 Almere City FC
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Almere City FC · On: Mees Hoedemakers · Off: Milan de Haan
51′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Almere City FC · On: Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kamp · Off: Emanuel Poku
52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Almere City FC · On: H. el Dahri · Off: Martin Jean Wasinski
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Emmen · On: Stan van Manen · Off: Sybrand Veldhuis
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Almere City FC · On: Teun Bijleveld · Off: Tiziano vianello
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Emmen · On: Daan Lambers · Off: Freddy Quispel
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Almere City FC · On: Byron Burgering · Off: Jamie Jacobs
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Stan van Manen · Emmen
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Emmen 2–1 Almere City FC
78′77′: Ferdy Druijf on the scoresheet for Almere City FC, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–2
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Emmen · On: Luca Denk · Off: Torben Rhein
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Mees Hoedemakers · Almere City FC
93′2–1 at the end. Our 43% on Almere City FC misses, and the record keeps it. 2–1 · 100–0–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Emmen · On: V Carus · Off: Michael Breij
FTFULL TIME Emmen 2–1 Almere City FC
FTEmmen 2–1 Almere City FC · Almere City FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Almere City FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Emmen 35%, draw 22%, Almere City FC 43%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Emmen v Almere City FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Emmen win35%

Draw22%

Almere City FC win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueDe Oude Meerdijk

Line-ups

Emmen

4-2-3-1

Almere City FC

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Emmen

Almere City FC

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Almere City FC	10	+15	22
5	Emmen	10	+4	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Emmen

4-2-3-1

1 S. Karssies

24 L. Everink

25 R. Kongolo

3 Y. Dede-Lhomme

17 B. Van Hove

21 A. Hojabrpour

7 T. Rhein

40 S. Veldhuis

12 F. Quispel

22 M. Breij

9 J. Cooper

Coach · M. van Dam

Substitutes

8 · L. Denk

18 · V. Carus

2 · J. Mukeh

27 · J. Huijzer

38 · Kevin Norder

33 · K. Roos

15 · C. Sunder

14 · Stan van Manen

4 · C. Østergaard

23 · D. Lambers

Almere City FC

4-3-3

1 Wessel Speel

2 M. Wasinski

3 J. Jacobs

44 D. van Bruggen

16 Tiziano vianello

6 E. Cornelisse

10 J. Jacobs

8 M. de Haan

17 E. Poku

9 F. Druijf

11 M. Dors

Coach · Anoush Dastgir

Substitutes

20 · J. Kalisvaart

23 · J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

22 · E. van de Blaak

31 · J. van der Mark

30 · J. van der Wilt

26 · Twan·Van Der Zeeuw

4 · J. Lawrence

18 · Bas Huisman

14 · M. Hoedemakers

21 · H. El Dahri

7 · B. Burgering

5 · T. Bijleveld

Our number · almere city fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market33%

Us43%

~~Market~~33%

We make Almere City FC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Emmen v Almere City FC~~1.62 – 1.83

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 22~~5 v 2

~~The market · Almere City FC win~~33% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Almere City FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Emmen win	35%	43%	−8
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Almere City FC win	43%	33%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Both teams to score	66%	67%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Emmen or draw	57%	67%	−10
Emmen clean sheet	16%	–	–
Almere City FC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.0 6.2 5.3 3.3 1 5.5 9.1 8.5 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.5 6.8 4.2 3 2.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Emmen down, Almere City FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,016 Eerste Divisie matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Emmen at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Almere City FC away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Emmen, 1.83 for Almere City FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALM 4–2 EMM · EMM 1–4 ALM · EMM 1–2 ALM · ALM 2–0 EMM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept

EMMEN

WLLWDW5–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

ALMERE CITY FC

LWWLWW0–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	10	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	+15	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	+12	22
4	NAC Breda	11	+3	20
5	Emmen	10	+4	19
6	Vitesse	11	+1	17
7	Roda	10	+2	16
8	MVV	10	−7	16
9	FC Volendam	10	+5	15
10	Waalwijk	10	+4	14
11	Jong AZ	11	+4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	−3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
14	FC OSS	11	−1	12
15	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	−8	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	−5	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7