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Dordrecht v Emmen

Dordrecht

0–3Full time

Emmen

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · GN Bouw Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Dordrecht 0–3 Emmen DORDRECHT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dordrecht win~~46%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.734

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.493

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dordrecht win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dordrecht 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Dordrecht v Emmen
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Dordrecht 0–1 Emmen
28′⚽ GOAL · 29' Dordrecht 0–1 Emmen
30′Emmen ahead on 29′ through Jack Cooper Love. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–58
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Dordrecht win: 46% at kick-off, 18% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Emmen win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dordrecht win 18%)
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' A. Ouarghi · Dordrecht
35′We said Dordrecht at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
41′We said Dordrecht at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Dordrecht 0–2 Emmen · Jack Cooper Love
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dordrecht win: 46% at kick-off, 4% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Dordrecht 0–2 Emmen · Freddy Quispel
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' nicolas rossi · Dordrecht
45′SECOND HALF Dordrecht 0–2 Emmen
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Jack Cooper Love · Emmen
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Lorenzo Riccio · Dordrecht
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Jack Cooper Love · Emmen
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Bryan Van Hove · Emmen
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Emmen · On: Mustafa Abdullatif · Off: Freddy Quispel
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dordrecht · On: Siginho Gerardo · Off: Martin Vetkal
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dordrecht · On: Robin van Asten · Off: J. de Bie
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Emmen · On: Daan Lambers · Off: Sybrand Veldhuis
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Emmen · On: V Carus · Off: Bryan Van Hove
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Dordrecht 0–3 Emmen · Freddy Quispel
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Dordrecht 0–3 Emmen · Mustafa Abdullatif
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Emmen · On: Joshua Mukeh · Off: Alessandro Hojabrpour
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Emmen · On: Chiel Sunder · Off: Michael Breij
FTFULL TIME Dordrecht 0–3 Emmen
FTDordrecht 0–3 Emmen · Dordrecht win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dordrecht win46%

Draw22%

Emmen win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · GN Bouw Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dordrecht

4-2-3-1

28 T. Coremans

22 J. van Aken

4 J. Pinas

3 S. Henderikx

5 C. Mpanzu

8 Senne Vugts

6 L. Riccio

11 N. Rossi

21 M. Vetkal

10 A. Ouarghi

9 J. de Bie

Coach · Paul Nuijten

Substitutes

44 · B. Hardley

29 · Siginho Gerardo

51 · Lucas Gardenier

2 · A. Lechkar

15 · Y. M'Bemba

16 · L. Román

23 · L. Woudenberg

18 · Robin van Asten

1 · Finn Oldenstam

13 · Jamie Luca Kooymans

Emmen

4-2-3-1

1 S. Karssies

24 L. Everink

25 R. Kongolo

3 Y. Dede-Lhomme

17 B. Van Hove

21 A. Hojabrpour

7 T. Rhein

40 S. Veldhuis

12 F. Quispel

22 M. Breij

9 J. Cooper

Coach · M. van Dam

Substitutes

27 · J. Huijzer

23 · D. Lambers

38 · Kevin Norder

33 · K. Roos

15 · C. Sunder

26 · David Timmerman

4 · C. Østergaard

2 · J. Mukeh

18 · V. Carus

10 · Mustafa Abdullatif

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dordrecht

4-2-3-1

28 T. Coremans

22 J. van Aken

4 J. Pinas

3 S. Henderikx

5 C. Mpanzu

8 Senne Vugts

6 L. Riccio

11 N. Rossi

21 M. Vetkal

10 A. Ouarghi

9 J. de Bie

Coach · Paul Nuijten

Substitutes

44 · B. Hardley

29 · Siginho Gerardo

51 · Lucas Gardenier

2 · A. Lechkar

15 · Y. M'Bemba

16 · L. Román

23 · L. Woudenberg

18 · Robin van Asten

1 · Finn Oldenstam

13 · Jamie Luca Kooymans

Emmen

4-2-3-1

1 S. Karssies

24 L. Everink

25 R. Kongolo

3 Y. Dede-Lhomme

17 B. Van Hove

21 A. Hojabrpour

7 T. Rhein

40 S. Veldhuis

12 F. Quispel

22 M. Breij

9 J. Cooper

Coach · M. van Dam

Substitutes

27 · J. Huijzer

23 · D. Lambers

38 · Kevin Norder

33 · K. Roos

15 · C. Sunder

26 · David Timmerman

4 · C. Østergaard

2 · J. Mukeh

18 · V. Carus

10 · Mustafa Abdullatif

Our number · dordrecht winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

46% The market33%

Us46%

~~Market~~33%

We make Dordrecht a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dordrecht win	46%	33%	+14
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Emmen win	31%	43%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Both teams to score	64%	66%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Dordrecht or draw	69%	57%	+11
Dordrecht clean sheet	23%	–	–
Emmen clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.6 5.7 4.0 1 7.1 9.6 7.2 3.5 2 6.2 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 3.8 5.5 4.0 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dordrecht down, Emmen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dordrecht at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Emmen away: 1.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Dordrecht, 1.47 for Emmen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DOR 1–0 EMM · EMM 2–0 DOR · DOR 3–0 EMM · EMM 1–2 DOR

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

DORDRECHT

LLLLWD1–6 · 3–6 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–1

EMMEN

LWLLWD0–4 · 5–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7