Den Bosch v FC OSS prediction · Eerste Divisie

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Den Bosch 2–1 FC OSS DEN BOSCH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Den Bosch win~~49%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.396

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.275

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Den Bosch win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Den Bosch 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Den Bosch v FC OSS
7′We said Den Bosch at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–11
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Den Bosch 1–0 FC OSS
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Den Bosch win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
9′Den Bosch score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–11
13′We said Den Bosch at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Den Bosch 2–0 FC OSS
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Den Bosch win: 49% at kick-off, 90% now
14′Den Bosch ahead on 13′ through Sebastian Karlsson Grach. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
45′12 shots for FC OSS, 7 the other way, and they still trail 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′SECOND HALF Den Bosch 2–0 FC OSS
46′HALF-TIME Den Bosch 2–0 FC OSS
50′We said Den Bosch at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
51′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
55′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Jeffry Fortes · Den Bosch
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FC OSS · On: Milo Horemans · Off: Maurilio de Lannoy
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FC OSS · On: Andy Visser · Off: Franslyn Nsingi
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' FC OSS · On: Lars Mol · Off: Richard van der Venne
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Den Bosch · On: Wang Bohao · Off: Boris van Schuppen
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Den Bosch win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC OSS · On: Siriné Doucouré · Off: Julian Kuijpers
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC OSS · On: Thomas Cox · Off: Ilounga Pata
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Den Bosch · On: Lorenzo Hoffman · Off: Ilias Boumassaoudi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Den Bosch · On: Jack de Vries · Off: Sebastian Karlsson Grach
82′We said Den Bosch at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Kevin Monzialo · Den Bosch
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Den Bosch · On: Tim Rafi Wolters · Off: Kevin Monzialo
88′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Den Bosch 2–1 FC OSS
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Den Bosch win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
90′Milo Horemans scores for FC OSS on 89′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
91′FC OSS have had 17 attempts to 12 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
93′2–1 at the end. Our 49% on Den Bosch comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Den Bosch win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Den Bosch 2–1 FC OSS
FTDen Bosch 2–1 FC OSS · Den Bosch win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Den Bosch are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Den Bosch 49%, draw 23%, FC OSS 28%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Den Bosch v FC OSSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Den Bosch win49%

Draw23%

FC OSS win28%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion de Vliert

Line-ups

Den Bosch

4-1-4-1

FC OSS

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Den Bosch

FC OSS

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	FC OSS	10	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Den Bosch

4-1-4-1

1 P. van de Merbel

2 S. Barglan

22 Jeffry Fortes

3 S. Maas

33 M. Laros

18 H. Eikelboom

8 K. Monzialo

35 B. van Schuppen

10 Devon Decorte

40 I. Boumassaoudi

9 S. Karlsson Grach

Coach · Bart Schreuder

Substitutes

31 · E. Bijlsma

25 · Silvan Broker

55 · G. Hessels

27 · L. Hoffman

21 · F. Murre

17 · E. Semedo

16 · Wang Bohao

19 · R. Wolters

41 · K. de Rooij

11 · J. De Vries

4 · J. van Heertum

FC OSS

4-3-3

1 M. Havekotte

2 I. Pata

3 L. Miguel

23 D. Vianello

26 Julian Kuijpers

10 R. van der Venne

8 M. Esajas

11 J. Mathieu

27 M. de Lannoy

19 F. Nsingi

17 M. Hinoke

Coach · S. Ultee

Substitutes

21 · Thomas Cox

12 · A. Henry

99 · S. Doucouré

6 · M. Horemans

4 · Q. Jansen

24 · Jay Kuiper

28 · L. Mol

25 · J. Pansa

16 · D. Remie

9 · Andy Visser

18 · K. Lubrano

5 · Jafar Howard Bynoe

Our number · den bosch winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

49% The market57%

Us49%

~~Market~~57%

We make Den Bosch a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Den Bosch v FC OSS~~1.69 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~14 v 13

~~The market · Den Bosch win~~57% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Den Bosch win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Den Bosch win	49%	57%	−8
Draw	23%	22%	+1
FC OSS win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	66%	−11
Both teams to score	57%	64%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	78%	84%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	33%	46%	−13
Den Bosch or draw	72%	79%	−7
Den Bosch clean sheet	30%	–	–
FC OSS clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 7.1 4.1 1 9.6 10.9 6.8 2.8 2 7.8 9.3 5.7 2.3 3 4.4 5.3 3.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Den Bosch down, FC OSS across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,012 Eerste Divisie matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Den Bosch at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC OSS away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Den Bosch, 1.21 for FC OSS. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCO 4–2 DEN · DEN 5–2 FCO · DEN 1–0 FCO · FCO 1–0 DEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie this season · since 4 Sept

DEN BOSCH

LLWLDW1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

FC OSS

LLWLWW1–2 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27 · Regular season

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	10	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	+15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	+12	21
4	Emmen	10	+4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	+1	17
6	Roda	10	+2	16
7	MVV	10	−7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	+5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	+4	14
10	Vitesse	10	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	+4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	−2	13
13	FC OSS	10	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	−4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	−7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	−10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	−3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	−12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	−14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	−7	7