De Graafschap v Waalwijk

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said De Graafschap win at 42%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: De Graafschap was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
3. 1′KICK-OFF De Graafschap v Waalwijk
4. 31′9 shots for Waalwijk, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 38–29–33
5. 34′33′: Bjorn van Zijl on the scoresheet for De Graafschap. 0–0 · 38–30–33
6. 35′We published De Graafschap at 42%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–21–12
7. 35′⚽ GOAL · 33' De Graafschap 1–0 Waalwijk · Bjorn van Zijl (assist Rowan Besselink)
8. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' De Graafschap win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
9. 36′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
10. 45′HALF-TIME De Graafschap 1–0 Waalwijk
11. 45′SECOND HALF De Graafschap 1–0 Waalwijk
12. 47′Waalwijk have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
13. 48′We published De Graafschap at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
14. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' De Graafschap win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
15. 61′17 shots for Waalwijk, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
16. 63′We published De Graafschap at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
17. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Waalwijk · On: Ryan Fage · Off: Virgil Misidjan
18. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Waalwijk · On: Navajo Bakboord · Off: F. Al Mazyani
19. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' De Graafschap · On: Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff · Off: Levi Schoppema
20. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' De Graafschap · On: Clint Leemans · Off: Kaya Symons
21. 72′We published De Graafschap at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
22. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' De Graafschap · On: Nathan Charles Kaninda · Off: Bjorn van Zijl
23. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Loek Postma · Waalwijk
24. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' De Graafschap win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
25. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Waalwijk · On: Sven van der Plas · Off: Jordy de Wijs
26. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Waalwijk · On: Azzedine Dkidak · Off: Loek Postma
27. 79′We published De Graafschap at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
28. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' De Graafschap · On: Kyano Kwint · Off: Donny Warmerdam
29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' De Graafschap · On: Joran Hardeman · Off: Toivo Mero
30. 82′Waalwijk have had 20 attempts to 12 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
31. 82′We said De Graafschap at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–76–12
32. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' De Graafschap 1–1 Waalwijk
33. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' De Graafschap win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
34. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was De Graafschap win 88%)
35. 83′83′: Ryan Fage on the scoresheet for Waalwijk, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 11–78–10
36. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' De Graafschap win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
37. 85′We said De Graafschap at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–8
38. 88′Waalwijk have had 24 attempts to 12 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 7–87–6
39. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Waalwijk · On: Nazjir Held · Off: Jesse van de Haar
40. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called De Graafschap at 42% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
41. 92′We said De Graafschap at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
42. FTFULL TIME De Graafschap 1–1 Waalwijk
43. FTDe Graafschap 1–1 Waalwijk · De Graafschap win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.