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De Graafschap v Jong Utrecht

De Graafschap

2–1Full time

Jong Utrecht

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · De Vijverberg

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

De Graafschap 2–1 Jong Utrecht DE GRAAFSCHAP WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said De Graafschap win~~62%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.211

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said De Graafschap win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: De Graafschap was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–19–18
1′KICK-OFF De Graafschap v Jong Utrecht
23′⚽ GOAL · 24' De Graafschap 0–0 Jong Utrecht · Wessel Kooy
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' De Graafschap 0–1 Jong Utrecht · Wessel Kooy
25′24′ and it is 0–1: Wessel Kooy on the scoresheet for Jong Utrecht. 0–1 · 31–26–43
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' De Graafschap win: 62% at kick-off, 31% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Jong Utrecht win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was De Graafschap win 31%)
30′We said De Graafschap at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–45
35′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 26–27–47
41′We said De Graafschap at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–28–49
41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Emmanuel Chigozie Owen · Jong Utrecht
45′HALF-TIME De Graafschap 0–1 Jong Utrecht
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' De Graafschap · On: Toivo Mero · Off: Kaya Symons
45′SECOND HALF De Graafschap 0–1 Jong Utrecht
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Jong Utrecht · On: Driss Laaouina · Off: Jaygo van Ommeren
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' De Graafschap · On: Levi Schoppema · Off: Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' De Graafschap · On: gabriele finocchiaro · Off: Bjorn van Zijl
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Jong Utrecht · On: Richie Omorowa · Off: Noa Malik Dundas
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' De Graafschap · On: Julian kania · Off: Kyano Kwint
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' De Graafschap 1–1 Jong Utrecht · Wessel Kooy
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' De Graafschap 1–1 Jong Utrecht · Fedde De Jong
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Jong Utrecht · On: tijn boggende den · Off: Massien Ghaddari
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' De Graafschap 2–1 Jong Utrecht · Fedde De Jong
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' De Graafschap 2–1 Jong Utrecht · Julian kania (assist Nolan Martens)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' De Graafschap · On: Joran Hardeman · Off: Mark Diemers
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Jong Utrecht · On: Donovan Afrifa · Off: Bjorn Menzo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Jong Utrecht · On: Levi Rietveld · Off: Emmanuel Chigozie Owen
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Joran Hardeman · De Graafschap
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Julian kania · De Graafschap
FTFULL TIME De Graafschap 2–1 Jong Utrecht
FTDe Graafschap 2–1 Jong Utrecht · De Graafschap win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

De Graafschap win62%

Draw19%

Jong Utrecht win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · De Vijverberg

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

De Graafschap

4-2-3-1

1 T. Wieggers

2 J. Wieckhoff

3 R. Besselink

15 T. Kok

16 N. Martens

8 D. Warmerdam

21 K. Symons

10 F. de Jong

23 M. Diemers

7 Bjorn van Zijl

40 Kyano Kwint

Coach · T. Duivenvoorden

Substitutes

33 · R. Jonkers

17 · N. Kaninda

11 · T. Mero

22 · P. Reverson

5 · L. Schoppema

28 · J. Triep

4 · J. Hardeman

20 · Gabriele Finocchiaro

18 · Denzel Eijken

14 · Gijs Bolk

27 · N. Ahmeti-Grainca

9 · J. Kania

Jong Utrecht

4-3-3

1 M. Eppink

2 Yousri Sbai

3 J. Schuldes

14 W. Kooy

5 Viggo Plantinga

6 F. Pohl

9 N. Dundas

8 J. van Ommeren

11 E. C. Owen

10 Massien Ghaddari

7 Bjorn Menzo

Coach · Omar Rziki

Substitutes

20 · Tijn den Boggende

32 · M. Tsankov

21 · L. Rietveld

19 · R. Omorowa

18 · D. Laaouina

22 · Matyas Havelka

16 · Kenji Goes

31 · Justin Eversen

13 · A. Aslani

12 · Donovan Afrifa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

De Graafschap

4-2-3-1

1 T. Wieggers

2 J. Wieckhoff

3 R. Besselink

15 T. Kok

16 N. Martens

8 D. Warmerdam

21 K. Symons

10 F. de Jong

23 M. Diemers

7 Bjorn van Zijl

40 Kyano Kwint

Coach · T. Duivenvoorden

Substitutes

33 · R. Jonkers

17 · N. Kaninda

11 · T. Mero

22 · P. Reverson

5 · L. Schoppema

28 · J. Triep

4 · J. Hardeman

20 · Gabriele Finocchiaro

18 · Denzel Eijken

14 · Gijs Bolk

27 · N. Ahmeti-Grainca

9 · J. Kania

Jong Utrecht

4-3-3

1 M. Eppink

2 Yousri Sbai

3 J. Schuldes

14 W. Kooy

5 Viggo Plantinga

6 F. Pohl

9 N. Dundas

8 J. van Ommeren

11 E. C. Owen

10 Massien Ghaddari

7 Bjorn Menzo

Coach · Omar Rziki

Substitutes

20 · Tijn den Boggende

32 · M. Tsankov

21 · L. Rietveld

19 · R. Omorowa

18 · D. Laaouina

22 · Matyas Havelka

16 · Kenji Goes

31 · Justin Eversen

13 · A. Aslani

12 · Donovan Afrifa

Our number · de graafschap winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

62% The market58%

Us62%

~~Market~~58%

We make De Graafschap a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · de graafschap win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
De Graafschap win	62%	58%	+5
Draw	19%	21%	−3
Jong Utrecht win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	67%	70%	−4
Both teams to score	61%	68%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	51%	−6
De Graafschap or draw	81%	79%	+2
De Graafschap clean sheet	32%	–	–
Jong Utrecht clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.1 4.0 2.2 1 7.6 8.3 4.9 2 8.3 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 6.3 7.2 4.2 4 3.6 4.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+De Graafschap down, Jong Utrecht across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

De Graafschap at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Jong Utrecht away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for De Graafschap, 1.16 for Jong Utrecht. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEG 1–0 JON · JON 2–3 DEG · JON 1–1 DEG · DEG 2–2 JON

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

DE GRAAFSCHAP

LLWLWD1–4 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

JONG UTRECHT

LLDWWL1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 6–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7