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Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven

Almere City FC

3–0Full time

FC Eindhoven

Eerste Divisie · FRI 9 OCT · Yanmar Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Almere City FC 3–0 FC Eindhoven ALMERE CITY FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almere City FC win~~64%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.199

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.161

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almere City FC win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven
2′Little has changed for our model: Almere City FC 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–18
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Almere City FC 1–0 FC Eindhoven
11′⚽ GOAL · 12' Almere City FC 1–0 FC Eindhoven · Emanuel Poku
12′Emanuel Poku scores for Almere City FC on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Almere City FC win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
17′We said Almere City FC at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Raf van de Riet · FC Eindhoven
24′PENALTY MISSED · 23' Marley Dors · Almere City FC
26′23′ and it is 1–0: Marley Dors on the scoresheet for Almere City FC. 1–0 · 81–13–6
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Almere City FC 2–0 FC Eindhoven · Emanuel Poku
28′⚽ GOAL · 29' Almere City FC 2–0 FC Eindhoven · Milan de Haan
30′Almere City FC ahead on 29′ through Milan de Haan. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Almere City FC win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
36′We said Almere City FC at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Joey Jacobs · Almere City FC
41′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′SECOND HALF Almere City FC 2–0 FC Eindhoven
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Almere City FC · On: Damian van Bruggen · Off: Joey Jacobs
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Kevin van Veen · FC Eindhoven
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Almere City FC 3–0 FC Eindhoven · Milan de Haan
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' FC Eindhoven · On: antonio bazdaric · Off: Hugo Deenen
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' FC Eindhoven · On: Niek Munsters · Off: Kevin van Veen
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Almere City FC 3–0 FC Eindhoven · Milan de Haan
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Almere City FC 3–0 FC Eindhoven · James Lawrence
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Eindhoven · On: Akin Ozcan · Off: Xander Blomme
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Eindhoven · On: Luc Netten · Off: Clint Essers
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Almere City FC · On: Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kamp · Off: Milan de Haan
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Almere City FC · On: Byron Burgering · Off: Jamie Jacobs Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Almere City FC · On: Byron Burgering · Off: Jamie Jacobs Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Almere City FC · On: Olivier de Nijs · Off: Ferdy Druijf
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Eindhoven · On: Gideon Constancia · Off: Junior Poortvliet
FTFULL TIME Almere City FC 3–0 FC Eindhoven
FTAlmere City FC 3–0 FC Eindhoven · Almere City FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Almere City FC win64%

Draw18%

FC Eindhoven win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Yanmar Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Almere City FC

4-2-3-1

1 Wessel Speel

2 M. Wasinski

3 J. Jacobs

4 J. Lawrence

5 T. Bijleveld

8 M. de Haan

6 E. Cornelisse

17 E. Poku

10 J. Jacobs

11 M. Dors

9 F. Druijf

Coach · Anoush Dastgir

Substitutes

30 · J. van der Wilt

26 · Twan·Van Der Zeeuw

20 · J. Kalisvaart

18 · Bas Huisman

14 · M. Hoedemakers

7 · B. Burgering

24 · M. Mateyo

23 · J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

16 · Tiziano vianello

19 · Olivier de Nijs

44 · D. van Bruggen

FC Eindhoven

4-4-2

1 J. Borgmans

22 C. Essers

4 Predrag Jevtić

44 O. Renfrum

20 Raf van de Riet

28 R. Buifrahi

6 G. Beaumont

8 X. Blomme

7 H. Deenen

9 K. van Veen

19 Kevin Ferreira

Coach · Jan Poortvliet

Substitutes

5 · R. Boon

23 · Gideon Constancia

27 · E. Eksi

35 · J. Elbers

30 · N. Fancito

31 · N. Janssen

14 · N. Munsters

10 · Lasse Abildgaard

17 · L. Netten

21 · A. Ozcan

25 · Lennon Smulders

18 · Antonio Baždarić

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Almere City FC

4-2-3-1

1 Wessel Speel

2 M. Wasinski

3 J. Jacobs

4 J. Lawrence

5 T. Bijleveld

8 M. de Haan

6 E. Cornelisse

17 E. Poku

10 J. Jacobs

11 M. Dors

9 F. Druijf

Coach · Anoush Dastgir

Substitutes

30 · J. van der Wilt

26 · Twan·Van Der Zeeuw

20 · J. Kalisvaart

18 · Bas Huisman

14 · M. Hoedemakers

7 · B. Burgering

24 · M. Mateyo

23 · J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

16 · Tiziano vianello

19 · Olivier de Nijs

44 · D. van Bruggen

FC Eindhoven

4-4-2

1 J. Borgmans

22 C. Essers

4 Predrag Jevtić

44 O. Renfrum

20 Raf van de Riet

28 R. Buifrahi

6 G. Beaumont

8 X. Blomme

7 H. Deenen

9 K. van Veen

19 Kevin Ferreira

Coach · Jan Poortvliet

Substitutes

5 · R. Boon

23 · Gideon Constancia

27 · E. Eksi

35 · J. Elbers

30 · N. Fancito

31 · N. Janssen

14 · N. Munsters

10 · Lasse Abildgaard

17 · L. Netten

21 · A. Ozcan

25 · Lennon Smulders

18 · Antonio Baždarić

Our number · almere city fc winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

64% The market67%

Us64%

~~Market~~67%

We make Almere City FC a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · almere city fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almere City FC win	64%	67%	−4
Draw	18%	18%	0
FC Eindhoven win	18%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	52%	−5
Almere City FC or draw	82%	85%	−4
Almere City FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
FC Eindhoven clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 2.8 3.7 2.1 1 7.1 7.9 4.8 2 8.1 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 6.3 7.3 4.3 4 3.8 4.4 2.6 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Almere City FC down, FC Eindhoven across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,002 Eerste Divisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almere City FC at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Eindhoven away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Almere City FC, 1.18 for FC Eindhoven. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FCE 3–2 ALM · ALM 5–0 FCE · FCE 0–1 ALM · ALM 1–1 FCE

Form · last six in Eerste Divisie

ALMERE CITY FC

WLWWLW4–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0

FC EINDHOVEN

LDWWLD1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heracles	9	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	+1	16
5	MVV	9	−6	16
6	Roda	9	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	−2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	−4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	−1	9
15	FC OSS	9	−2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	−5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	−9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	−11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	−11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	−6	7