Zwaluwen v Excelsior Maassluis prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Zwaluwen 0–2 Excelsior Maassluis EXCELSIOR MAASSLUIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Excelsior Maassluis win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Excelsior Maassluis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zwaluwen 35%, draw 23%, Excelsior Maassluis 41%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Zwaluwen v Excelsior MaassluisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zwaluwen win35%

Draw23%

Excelsior Maassluis win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zwaluwen

Excelsior Maassluis

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Excelsior Maassluis	9	+12	20
6	Zwaluwen	9	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · excelsior maassluis winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Excelsior Maassluis a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zwaluwen v Excelsior Maassluis~~1.46 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 20~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zwaluwen win	35%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Excelsior Maassluis win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Zwaluwen or draw	59%	–	–
Zwaluwen clean sheet	21%	–	–
Excelsior Maassluis clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.8 7.8 6.0 3.2 1 7.2 10.6 8.5 4.6 2 5.1 7.8 6.1 3.3 3 2.5 3.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zwaluwen down, Excelsior Maassluis across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Zwaluwen at home: 1.00 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Excelsior Maassluis away: 1.75 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Zwaluwen, 1.59 for Excelsior Maassluis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

ZWALUWEN

WLWWWW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–2

EXCELSIOR MAASSLUIS

DWWWWW0–0 · 3–2 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	9	+17	22
2	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
3	Rijnvogels	9	+16	20
4	Excelsior Maassluis	9	+12	20
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
6	Zwaluwen	9	−1	16
7	GOES	9	−2	14
8	Dongen	9	0	13
9	Blauw Geel	9	+2	12
10	Poortugaal	9	−4	12
11	Gemert	9	−5	10
12	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9
14	UNA	9	−2	8
15	TOGB	9	−8	8
16	Vvsb	9	−8	7
17	Achilles Veen	9	−12	6
18	EVV	9	−12	2