Vvsb v Zwaluwen prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Vvsb 2–4 Zwaluwen VVSB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vvsb win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vvsb just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vvsb 39%, draw 23%, Zwaluwen 39%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Vvsb v ZwaluwenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vvsb win39%

Draw23%

Zwaluwen win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vvsb

Zwaluwen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vvsb winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Vvsb a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vvsb v Zwaluwen~~1.62 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 16~~16 v 7

~~The market · Vvsb win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vvsb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vvsb win	39%	39%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Zwaluwen win	39%	37%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	69%	−7
Both teams to score	63%	70%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	82%	85%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Vvsb or draw	61%	63%	−2
Vvsb clean sheet	21%	–	–
Zwaluwen clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.0 6.7 5.2 2.8 1 6.8 10.0 8.1 4.4 2 5.2 8.1 6.4 3.5 3 2.8 4.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vvsb down, Zwaluwen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vvsb at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zwaluwen away: 1.40 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Vvsb, 1.62 for Zwaluwen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZWA 3–1 VVS · VVS 1–1 ZWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

VVSB

LWLLLD0–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–3

ZWALUWEN

LWWWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
6	Dongen	10	+3	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
9	GOES	10	−6	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
13	TOGB	10	−8	9
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	10	−12	3