UNA v UDI '19 prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

UNA 0–2 UDI '19 UDI '19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UDI '19 win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.507

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UDI '19 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UNA 34%, draw 23%, UDI '19 42%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on UNA v UDI '19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

UNA win34%

Draw23%

UDI '19 win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UNA

UDI '19

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

Last match: 11 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
15	UNA	9	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · udi '19 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make UDI '19 a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UNA v UDI '19~~1.43 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 17~~15 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UNA win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
UDI '19 win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
UNA or draw	58%	–	–
UNA clean sheet	21%	–	–
UDI '19 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.9 8.0 6.2 3.4 1 7.2 10.6 8.6 4.7 2 4.9 7.6 6.1 3.3 3 2.4 3.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UNA down, UDI '19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,705 Derde Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.4% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UNA at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). UDI '19 away: 1.75 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for UNA, 1.61 for UDI '19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UDI 1–3 UNA · UNA 2–3 UDI · UDI 0–2 UNA · UNA 3–0 UDI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

UNA

DLLDDL1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

UDI '19

LWDLWW0–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 4–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
3	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
6	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
7	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
8	GOES	9	−2	14
9	Dongen	9	0	13
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9
14	TOGB	10	−8	9
15	UNA	9	−2	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	9	−12	2