UDI '19 v Poortugaal prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:08

UDI '19 2–3 Poortugaal UDI '19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UDI '19 win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.911

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UDI '19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UDI '19 53%, draw 23%, Poortugaal 24%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on UDI '19 v PoortugaalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

UDI '19 win53%

Draw23%

Poortugaal win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UDI '19

Poortugaal

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Derde Divisie

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · udi '19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make UDI '19 a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UDI '19 v Poortugaal~~1.82 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 15~~5 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UDI '19 win

Published at 52%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UDI '19 win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Poortugaal win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
UDI '19 or draw	76%	–	–
UDI '19 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Poortugaal clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.3 6.2 3.4 1 9.8 10.4 6.0 2.3 2 8.6 9.5 5.3 2.1 3 5.2 5.8 3.3 4 2.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UDI '19 down, Poortugaal across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

UDI '19 at home: 2.20 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Poortugaal away: 1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for UDI '19, 1.14 for Poortugaal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

UDI '19

WDLWWW4–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 2–0

POORTUGAAL

LLLLWW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
6	Dongen	10	+3	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
9	GOES	10	−6	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
13	TOGB	10	−8	9
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	10	−12	3