TOGB v Vvsb prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

TOGB 3–3 Vvsb TOGB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TOGB win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.968

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TOGB are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TOGB 49%, draw 20%, Vvsb 31%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on TOGB v VvsbBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

TOGB win49%

Draw20%

Vvsb win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TOGB

Vvsb

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	TOGB	9	−8	8
16	Vvsb	9	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · togb winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make TOGB a 49% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · TOGB v Vvsb~~2.12 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~15 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TOGB win	49%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Vvsb win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
TOGB or draw	69%	–	–
TOGB clean sheet	20%	–	–
Vvsb clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.4 4.1 3.2 1 5.2 7.9 6.5 3.6 2 5.2 8.2 6.7 3.8 3 3.7 5.8 4.7 2.6 4 3.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TOGB down, Vvsb across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

TOGB at home: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 4). Vvsb away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for TOGB, 1.66 for Vvsb. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VVS 1–3 TOG · TOG 4–4 VVS · VVS 2–1 TOG · TOG 1–1 VVS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

TOGB

DLLWWL3–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 2–3

VVSB

LLWLLL1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	9	+17	22
2	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
3	Rijnvogels	9	+16	20
4	Excelsior Maassluis	9	+12	20
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
6	Zwaluwen	9	−1	16
7	GOES	9	−2	14
8	Dongen	9	0	13
9	Blauw Geel	9	+2	12
10	Poortugaal	9	−4	12
11	Gemert	9	−5	10
12	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9
14	UNA	9	−2	8
15	TOGB	9	−8	8
16	Vvsb	9	−8	7
17	Achilles Veen	9	−12	6
18	EVV	9	−12	2