TOGB v Blauw Geel prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

TOGB 3–1 Blauw Geel TOGB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TOGB win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with TOGB just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: TOGB 40%, draw 22%, Blauw Geel 38%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on TOGB v Blauw GeelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

TOGB win40%

Draw22%

Blauw Geel win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TOGB

Blauw Geel

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
13	TOGB	10	−8	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · togb winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make TOGB a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · TOGB v Blauw Geel~~1.78 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TOGB win	40%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Blauw Geel win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
TOGB or draw	62%	–	–
TOGB clean sheet	18%	–	–
Blauw Geel clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.1 5.5 4.5 2.6 1 5.7 9.0 7.8 4.5 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 3.9 3 2.9 4.8 4.0 2.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TOGB down, Blauw Geel across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

TOGB at home: 2.20 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 5). Blauw Geel away: 1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for TOGB, 1.72 for Blauw Geel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BLA 1–3 TOG · TOG 2–1 BLA · BLA 3–3 TOG · TOG 2–2 BLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

TOGB

LLWWLD2–3 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 2–3 · 3–3

BLAUW GEEL

WWLDWL3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
6	Dongen	10	+3	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
9	GOES	10	−6	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
13	TOGB	10	−8	9
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	10	−12	3