TEC v Purmersteijn prediction · Derde Divisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TECDrawPurmersteijn

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · TEC 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with TEC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: TEC 39%, draw 22%, Purmersteijn 39%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on TEC v PurmersteijnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

TEC win39%

Draw22%

Purmersteijn win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TEC

Purmersteijn

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	TEC	10	+12	20
8	Purmersteijn	10	+7	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tec winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make TEC a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · TEC v Purmersteijn~~1.73 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 18~~6 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TEC win	39%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Purmersteijn win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
TEC or draw	61%	–	–
TEC clean sheet	18%	–	–
Purmersteijn clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.2 5.8 4.8 2.8 1 5.8 9.2 8.0 4.6 2.0 2 4.8 7.9 6.7 3.9 3 2.8 4.6 3.9 2.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TEC down, Purmersteijn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,723 Derde Divisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.4% of games this season, across 193 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

TEC at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Purmersteijn away: 1.20 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for TEC, 1.72 for Purmersteijn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

TEC

DWWWWD4–4 · 4–2 · 7–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

PURMERSTEIJN

DWLWDW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Harkemase Boys	11	+10	26
2	ACV	11	+16	24
3	VV Scherpenzeel	10	+8	23
4	Excelsior '31	11	+15	22
5	SC Genemuiden	11	+7	22
6	TEC	10	+12	20
7	Sportlust '46	11	+2	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	+7	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	11	+3	17
10	ADO '20	11	−2	14
11	Hoogeveen	11	−1	13
12	Hercules	11	−7	13
13	Eemdijk	10	−13	10
14	DVS 33 Ermelo	11	−5	9
15	Staphorst	11	−8	9
16	Dovo	11	−13	6
17	Hollandia	9	−11	4
18	SVZW	11	−20	1