SVZW v Hollandia prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

SVZW 0–1 Hollandia SVZW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SVZW win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.582

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with SVZW just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: SVZW 42%, draw 19%, Hollandia 39%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on SVZW v HollandiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SVZW win42%

Draw19%

Hollandia win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SVZW

Hollandia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · svzw winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make SVZW a 42% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.1, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SVZW v Hollandia~~2.19 – 2.11

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~18 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SVZW win	42%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Hollandia win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
SVZW or draw	61%	–	–
SVZW clean sheet	13%	–	–
Hollandia clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.9%

0123450 3.1 3.1 2.2 1 3.2 6.2 6.5 4.6 2.5 2 3.3 6.7 6.9 4.9 2.6 3 2.4 4.9 5.0 3.5 4 2.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SVZW down, Hollandia across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

SVZW at home: 1.50 scored, 2.75 conceded a game (last 4). Hollandia away: 2.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for SVZW, 2.11 for Hollandia. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 29 Aug

SVZW

LLLLLL4–6 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–1

HOLLANDIA

DLLLLL5–5 · 4–5 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–4

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
3	ACV	9	+13	20
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
6	TEC	9	+12	19
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6
15	Dovo	9	−12	5
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1