Staphorst v DVS 33 Ermelo prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Staphorst 2–1 DVS 33 Ermelo DVS 33 ERMELO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said DVS 33 Ermelo win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.635

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

DVS 33 Ermelo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Staphorst 36%, draw 23%, DVS 33 Ermelo 41%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Staphorst v DVS 33 ErmeloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Staphorst win36%

Draw23%

DVS 33 Ermelo win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Staphorst

DVS 33 Ermelo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dvs 33 ermelo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make DVS 33 Ermelo a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Staphorst v DVS 33 Ermelo~~1.54 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Staphorst win	36%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
DVS 33 Ermelo win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Staphorst or draw	59%	–	–
Staphorst clean sheet	19%	–	–
DVS 33 Ermelo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.1 7.1 5.7 3.2 1 6.5 10.2 8.5 4.7 2.0 2 4.8 7.8 6.5 3.6 3 2.5 4.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Staphorst down, DVS 33 Ermelo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Staphorst at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). DVS 33 Ermelo away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Staphorst, 1.66 for DVS 33 Ermelo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STA 4–1 DVS · DVS 3–1 STA · DVS 1–1 STA · STA 1–0 DVS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

STAPHORST

LDLLLW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 4–2

DVS 33 ERMELO

LDWLLD1–3 · 4–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
3	ACV	9	+13	20
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
6	TEC	9	+12	19
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6
15	Dovo	9	−12	5
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1