Sportlust '46 v ADO '20 prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 03:24

Sportlust '46 2–1 ADO '20 SPORTLUST '46 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sportlust '46 win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.422

Corrected on 19 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 1–3; the score is now 2–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sportlust '46 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportlust '46 47%, draw 24%, ADO '20 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sportlust '46 v ADO '20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sportlust '46 win47%

Draw24%

ADO '20 win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportlust '46

ADO '20

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sportlust '46 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Sportlust '46 a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportlust '46 v ADO '20~~1.66 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportlust '46 win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
ADO '20 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Sportlust '46 or draw	71%	–	–
Sportlust '46 clean sheet	29%	–	–
ADO '20 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 7.1 4.3 1 9.3 11.0 7.0 2.9 2 7.5 9.2 5.7 2.4 3 4.2 5.1 3.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportlust '46 down, ADO '20 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportlust '46 at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). ADO '20 away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Sportlust '46, 1.25 for ADO '20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 ADO · ADO 2–2 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

SPORTLUST '46

DWWWLD2–2 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

ADO '20

WLLLWW6–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
3	ACV	9	+13	20
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
6	TEC	9	+12	19
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6
15	Dovo	9	−12	5
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1