SC Genemuiden v ADO '20 prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

SC Genemuiden 2–2 ADO '20 SC GENEMUIDEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Genemuiden win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.901

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Genemuiden are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Genemuiden 48%, draw 23%, ADO '20 29%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on SC Genemuiden v ADO '20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SC Genemuiden win48%

Draw23%

ADO '20 win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Genemuiden

ADO '20

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	SC Genemuiden	10	+7	21
11	ADO '20	10	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc genemuiden winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make SC Genemuiden a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Genemuiden v ADO '20~~1.71 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 13~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SC Genemuiden win

Published at 46%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Genemuiden win	48%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
ADO '20 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
SC Genemuiden or draw	71%	–	–
SC Genemuiden clean sheet	28%	–	–
ADO '20 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 6.7 4.2 1 8.9 10.7 6.9 3.0 2 7.3 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.2 5.3 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Genemuiden down, ADO '20 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Genemuiden at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). ADO '20 away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for SC Genemuiden, 1.28 for ADO '20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SCG 4–1 ADO · ADO 1–0 SCG · SCG 1–0 ADO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

SC GENEMUIDEN

WLWLWL3–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–5 · 3–1 · 0–5

ADO '20

LLLWWL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ACV	10	+16	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	+8	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	+6	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	+19	22
5	SC Genemuiden	10	+7	21
6	TEC	10	+12	20
7	Sportlust '46	11	+2	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	+7	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	+1	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	+1	13
11	ADO '20	10	−2	13
12	Hercules	10	−10	10
13	Eemdijk	10	−13	10
14	Staphorst	10	−5	9
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	−6	6
16	Dovo	10	−13	5
17	Hollandia	9	−11	4
18	SVZW	10	−19	1