Roosendaal v Gemert prediction · Derde Divisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RoosendaalDrawGemert

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Roosendaal 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roosendaal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Roosendaal 42%, draw 21%, Gemert 36%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Roosendaal v GemertBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Roosendaal win42%

Draw21%

Gemert win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Roosendaal

Gemert

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Derde Divisie

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roosendaal winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Roosendaal a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Roosendaal v Gemert~~1.90 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~12 v 10

~~The market · Roosendaal win~~41% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Roosendaal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Roosendaal win	42%	41%	+1
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Gemert win	36%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Both teams to score	69%	72%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Roosendaal or draw	64%	65%	−1
Roosendaal clean sheet	18%	–	–
Gemert clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.7 4.9 4.1 2.4 1 5.3 8.5 7.4 4.3 2 4.8 8.0 6.9 4.0 3 3.0 5.1 4.3 2.5 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Roosendaal down, Gemert across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Roosendaal at home: 1.80 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Gemert away: 1.60 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Roosendaal, 1.74 for Gemert. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ROO 3–3 GEM · GEM 2–2 ROO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

ROOSENDAAL

LLWLLD1–3 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 2–4 · 3–3

GEMERT

WDWLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
6	Dongen	10	+3	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
9	GOES	10	−6	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
13	TOGB	10	−8	9
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	10	−12	3