Rijnvogels v Noordwijk prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Rijnvogels 0–3 Noordwijk RIJNVOGELS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rijnvogels win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.691

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rijnvogels are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rijnvogels 44%, draw 22%, Noordwijk 33%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Rijnvogels v NoordwijkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rijnvogels win44%

Draw22%

Noordwijk win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rijnvogels

Noordwijk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rijnvogels winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Rijnvogels a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rijnvogels v Noordwijk~~1.75 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 22~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rijnvogels win	44%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Noordwijk win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Rijnvogels or draw	67%	–	–
Rijnvogels clean sheet	24%	–	–
Noordwijk clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.1 6.3 4.5 2.3 1 7.3 9.9 7.4 3.7 2 6.0 8.5 6.2 3.1 3 3.5 5.0 3.6 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rijnvogels down, Noordwijk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rijnvogels at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Noordwijk away: 2.25 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Rijnvogels, 1.47 for Noordwijk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NOO 4–1 RIJ · RIJ 1–0 NOO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

RIJNVOGELS

WWWWWL5–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 5–1 · 0–2

NOORDWIJK

DWWLWW0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	9	+17	22
2	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
3	Rijnvogels	9	+16	20
4	Excelsior Maassluis	9	+12	20
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
6	Zwaluwen	9	−1	16
7	GOES	9	−2	14
8	Dongen	9	0	13
9	Blauw Geel	9	+2	12
10	Poortugaal	9	−4	12
11	Gemert	9	−5	10
12	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9
14	UNA	9	−2	8
15	TOGB	9	−8	8
16	Vvsb	9	−8	7
17	Achilles Veen	9	−12	6
18	EVV	9	−12	2