Purmersteijn v Sparta Nijkerk prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Purmersteijn 3–0 Sparta Nijkerk SPARTA NIJKERK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Nijkerk win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Nijkerk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Purmersteijn 37%, draw 21%, Sparta Nijkerk 42%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Purmersteijn v Sparta NijkerkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Purmersteijn win37%

Draw21%

Sparta Nijkerk win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Purmersteijn

Sparta Nijkerk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta nijkerk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Sparta Nijkerk a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Purmersteijn v Sparta Nijkerk~~1.78 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Purmersteijn win	37%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Sparta Nijkerk win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Purmersteijn or draw	58%	–	–
Purmersteijn clean sheet	15%	–	–
Sparta Nijkerk clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.5 5.0 4.6 3.0 1 4.7 8.3 7.9 5.1 2.5 2 4.0 7.4 6.9 4.4 2.2 3 2.4 4.4 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Purmersteijn down, Sparta Nijkerk across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Purmersteijn at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Sparta Nijkerk away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Purmersteijn, 1.93 for Sparta Nijkerk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

PURMERSTEIJN

LDWLWD1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 1–1

SPARTA NIJKERK

WLWWWL3–1 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
3	ACV	9	+13	20
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
6	TEC	9	+12	19
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6
15	Dovo	9	−12	5
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1