Noordwijk v GOES prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Noordwijk 3–2 GOES NOORDWIJK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Noordwijk win~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.141

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Noordwijk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Noordwijk 69%, draw 16%, GOES 15%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Noordwijk v GOESBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Noordwijk win69%

Draw16%

GOES win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Noordwijk

GOES

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

Last match: 18 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · noordwijk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

69% The market–

Us69%

We make Noordwijk a 69% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Noordwijk v GOES~~2.69 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 14~~1 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Noordwijk win

Published at 65%, 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Noordwijk win	69%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
GOES win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Noordwijk or draw	85%	–	–
Noordwijk clean sheet	32%	–	–
GOES clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.3 2.8 1 6.2 6.6 3.9 2 7.8 8.7 4.9 3 6.8 7.6 4.3 4 4.6 5.1 2.9 5 2.5 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Noordwijk down, GOES across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Noordwijk at home: 2.00 scored, 0.40 conceded a game (last 5). GOES away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Noordwijk, 1.15 for GOES. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GOE 0–1 NOO · GOE 3–1 NOO · NOO 2–2 GOE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

NOORDWIJK

WWLWWW2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–0

GOES

WWWLLL3–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–6

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
6	Dongen	10	+3	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
9	GOES	10	−6	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
13	TOGB	10	−8	9
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	10	−12	3