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Noordwijk v Gemert

Noordwijk

4–0Full time

Gemert

Derde Divisie · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Noordwijk 4–0 Gemert NOORDWIJK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Noordwijk win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.330

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Noordwijk win53%

Draw22%

Gemert win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · noordwijk winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Noordwijk a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Noordwijk win	53%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Gemert win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Noordwijk or draw	76%	–	–
Noordwijk clean sheet	32%	–	–
Gemert clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.2 6.2 3.4 1 9.6 10.4 6.0 2.4 2 8.4 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.1 5.8 3.3 4 2.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Noordwijk down, Gemert across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,673 Derde Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.2% of games this season, across 143 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Noordwijk at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Gemert away: 2.00 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Noordwijk, 1.15 for Gemert. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie

NOORDWIJK

WDWWLW1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

GEMERT

LDWDWL2–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rijnvogels	8	+18	20
2	Excelsior '31	8	+16	19
3	ACV	8	+13	19
4	Noordwijk	8	+13	19
5	FC Lisse	8	+8	19
6	VV Scherpenzeel	8	+6	19
7	SC Genemuiden	8	+10	18
8	Excelsior Maassluis	8	+9	17
9	Harkemase Boys	8	+4	17
10	TEC	8	+11	16
11	Sportlust '46	8	+3	15
12	Sparta Nijkerk	8	+6	14
13	UDI '19	8	+5	14
14	Purmersteijn	8	+4	14
15	GOES	8	−1	14
16	Hoogeveen	8	+5	13
17	Dongen	8	+4	13
18	Zwaluwen	8	−3	13
19	Gemert	8	−1	10
20	ADO '20	8	−3	10
21	Blauw Geel	8	0	9
22	Roosendaal	8	−3	9
23	Poortugaal	8	−5	9
24	Hercules	8	−8	9
25	UNA	8	−1	8
26	TOGB	8	−5	8
27	Vvsb	8	−6	7
28	Groene Ster	8	−8	6
29	DVS 33 Ermelo	8	−5	5
30	Dovo	8	−10	5
31	Staphorst	8	−8	3
32	Achilles Veen	8	−13	3
33	Eemdijk	7	−17	3
34	EVV	8	−11	2
35	Hollandia	7	−10	1
36	SVZW	8	−17	1