Hoogeveen v ACV prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Hoogeveen 1–4 ACV ACV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ACV win~~56%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.294

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ACV are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hoogeveen 25%, draw 19%, ACV 56%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Hoogeveen v ACVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hoogeveen win25%

Draw19%

ACV win56%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hoogeveen

ACV

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	ACV	9	+13	20
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · acv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market44%

Us56%

~~Market~~44%

We make ACV a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hoogeveen v ACV~~1.45 – 2.27

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 20~~10 v 3

~~The market · ACV win~~44% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ACV win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hoogeveen win	25%	33%	−8
Draw	19%	23%	−4
ACV win	56%	44%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	71%	64%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	65%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	43%	+7
Hoogeveen or draw	44%	56%	−12
Hoogeveen clean sheet	11%	–	–
ACV clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.7%

0123450 2.5 5.9 6.3 4.7 2.8 1 3.8 7.8 8.7 6.5 3.8 2 2.7 5.7 6.2 4.6 2.7 3 2.8 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hoogeveen down, ACV across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hoogeveen at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). ACV away: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Hoogeveen, 2.27 for ACV. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ACV 2–1 HOO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

HOOGEVEEN

DWLWWL2–2 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 5–1 · 5–3 · 1–2

ACV

WWWWLD3–0 · 5–1 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 2–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
3	ACV	9	+13	20
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
6	TEC	9	+12	19
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6
15	Dovo	9	−12	5
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1