Hollandia v VV Scherpenzeel prediction · Derde Divisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HollandiaDrawVV Scherpenzeel

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · VV Scherpenzeel 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VV Scherpenzeel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hollandia 27%, draw 20%, VV Scherpenzeel 52%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Hollandia v VV ScherpenzeelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hollandia win27%

Draw20%

VV Scherpenzeel win52%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hollandia

VV Scherpenzeel

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	+8	23
17	Hollandia	9	−11	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vv scherpenzeel winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make VV Scherpenzeel a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hollandia v VV Scherpenzeel~~1.53 – 2.18

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 23~~17 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hollandia win	27%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
VV Scherpenzeel win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Hollandia or draw	48%	–	–
Hollandia clean sheet	12%	–	–
VV Scherpenzeel clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.7%

0123450 2.5 5.6 5.8 4.2 2.3 1 4.0 8.0 8.7 6.3 3.5 2 2.9 6.2 6.6 4.8 2.6 3 3.2 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hollandia down, VV Scherpenzeel across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023.

Home and away form

Hollandia at home: 1.60 scored, 3.60 conceded a game (last 5). VV Scherpenzeel away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Hollandia, 2.18 for VV Scherpenzeel. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 6 Sept

HOLLANDIA

LLLLLW4–5 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 1–0

VV SCHERPENZEEL

WWDWWD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ACV	10	+16	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	+8	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	+6	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	+19	22
5	SC Genemuiden	10	+7	21
6	TEC	10	+12	20
7	Sportlust '46	11	+2	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	+7	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	+1	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	+1	13
11	ADO '20	10	−2	13
12	Hercules	10	−10	10
13	Eemdijk	10	−13	10
14	Staphorst	10	−5	9
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	−6	6
16	Dovo	10	−13	5
17	Hollandia	9	−11	4
18	SVZW	10	−19	1