Harkemase Boys v Excelsior '31 prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Harkemase Boys 4–0 Excelsior '31 HARKEMASE BOYS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Harkemase Boys win~~48%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.416

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.449

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Harkemase Boys are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Harkemase Boys 48%, draw 23%, Excelsior '31 30%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Harkemase Boys v Excelsior '31Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Harkemase Boys win48%

Draw23%

Excelsior '31 win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Harkemase Boys

Excelsior '31

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Harkemase Boys	10	+6	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	+19	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · harkemase boys winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:08 · locked at kick-off

48% The market45%

Us48%

~~Market~~45%

We make Harkemase Boys a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Harkemase Boys v Excelsior '31~~1.80 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 22~~3 v 4

~~The market · Harkemase Boys win~~45% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Harkemase Boys win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Harkemase Boys win	48%	45%	+3
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Excelsior '31 win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Both teams to score	62%	67%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Harkemase Boys or draw	70%	69%	+1
Harkemase Boys clean sheet	26%	–	–
Excelsior '31 clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.2 6.0 4.0 1 7.8 10.1 7.0 3.3 2 6.7 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.0 5.5 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Harkemase Boys down, Excelsior '31 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Harkemase Boys at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Excelsior '31 away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Harkemase Boys, 1.38 for Excelsior '31. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HAR 0–1 EXC · EXC 0–1 HAR · HAR 1–2 EXC · EXC 1–5 HAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

HARKEMASE BOYS

DWDLWW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 3–2

EXCELSIOR '31

DWWWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ACV	10	+16	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	+8	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	+6	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	+19	22
5	SC Genemuiden	10	+7	21
6	TEC	10	+12	20
7	Sportlust '46	11	+2	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	+7	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	+1	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	+1	13
11	ADO '20	10	−2	13
12	Hercules	10	−10	10
13	Eemdijk	10	−13	10
14	Staphorst	10	−5	9
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	−6	6
16	Dovo	10	−13	5
17	Hollandia	9	−11	4
18	SVZW	10	−19	1