Groene Ster v UNA prediction · Derde Divisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Groene SterDrawUNA

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Groene Ster 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Groene Ster just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Groene Ster 39%, draw 23%, UNA 38%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Groene Ster v UNABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Groene Ster win39%

Draw23%

UNA win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Groene Ster

UNA

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · groene ster winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Groene Ster a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Groene Ster v UNA~~1.64 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~14 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Groene Ster win	39%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
UNA win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Groene Ster or draw	62%	–	–
Groene Ster clean sheet	21%	–	–
UNA clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.0 6.6 5.1 2.7 1 6.7 10.0 8.0 4.3 2 5.3 8.2 6.5 3.5 3 2.9 4.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Groene Ster down, UNA across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,723 Derde Divisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.4% of games this season, across 193 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Groene Ster at home: 1.60 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). UNA away: 0.80 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Groene Ster, 1.60 for UNA. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GRO 0–4 UNA · UNA 2–0 GRO · GRO 3–1 UNA · UNA 1–0 GRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

GROENE STER

WDLLWL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 0–3

UNA

LLDDLL1–4 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	11	+21	28
2	FC Lisse	11	+18	28
3	Excelsior Maassluis	11	+15	26
4	Rijnvogels	11	+16	23
5	UDI '19	11	+10	20
6	Zwaluwen	11	−1	19
7	Poortugaal	11	−1	18
8	Dongen	11	−1	16
9	GOES	11	−7	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	11	−2	12
12	TOGB	11	−6	12
13	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	11	−10	8
17	Achilles Veen	11	−17	6
18	EVV	11	−13	3