Groene Ster v GOES prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:19

Groene Ster 2–1 GOES GROENE STER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Groene Ster win~~42%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.520

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Groene Ster win42%

Draw20%

GOES win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Groene Ster

GOES

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	GOES	8	−1	14
30	Groene Ster	8	−8	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · groene ster winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

42% The market38%

Us42%

~~Market~~38%

We make Groene Ster a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · groene ster win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Groene Ster win	42%	38%	+4
Draw	20%	25%	−5
GOES win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	76%	67%	+9
Both teams to score	74%	68%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	90%	84%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	57%	47%	+10
Groene Ster or draw	62%	63%	−1
Groene Ster clean sheet	15%	–	–
GOES clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 3.8 3.5 2.3 1 4.0 7.0 6.9 4.5 2.3 2 3.9 7.2 6.9 4.5 2.3 3 2.7 4.9 4.7 3.1 4 2.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Groene Ster down, GOES across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,689 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.3% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Groene Ster at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). GOES away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Groene Ster, 1.96 for GOES. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie

GROENE STER

DDWDLL3–3 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–5

GOES

LDWWWL1–4 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	9	+17	22
2	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
3	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
4	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
5	Rijnvogels	9	+16	20
6	ACV	9	+13	20
7	Excelsior Maassluis	9	+10	20
8	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
9	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
10	TEC	9	+12	19
11	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
12	Zwaluwen	9	−1	16
13	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
14	UDI '19	8	+5	14
15	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
16	GOES	8	−1	14
17	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
18	Dongen	8	+4	13
19	ADO '20	9	−1	13
20	Blauw Geel	9	+2	12
21	Poortugaal	9	−4	12
22	Gemert	9	−5	10
23	Hercules	9	−8	10
24	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
25	UNA	9	−2	8
26	TOGB	9	−6	8
27	Vvsb	9	−8	7
28	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
29	Staphorst	9	−6	6
30	Groene Ster	8	−8	6
31	Achilles Veen	9	−12	6
32	Dovo	9	−12	5
33	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
34	EVV	9	−12	2
35	Hollandia	8	−12	1
36	SVZW	9	−18	1